人力资本和物质资本对新疆经济增长的影响分析  

The Impact of Human Capital and Material Capital on Economic Growth in Xinjiang

作　　者：陈勇[1] 唐世辉[2] 

机构地区：[1]新疆大学经济与管理学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830049 [2]新疆师范高等专科学校(新疆教育学院)职业教育分院,新疆乌鲁木齐830000

出　　处：《新疆大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2014年第6期10-14,共5页Journal of Xinjiang University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

摘　　要：文章对改革开放以来新疆经济、物质资本和人力资本的变化进行对比及相关性分析,结果为:新疆经济、物质资本和人力资本之间有显著的的正相关性,新疆经济与物质资本之间的相关性高于人力资本。有效劳动模型和协整方程结果都显示新疆经济的技术综合水平很低,物质资本产出弹性高于人力资本产出弹性,两者产出弹性之和大于1。借助ARIMA模型、经济平均增长速度、跨越式目标以及有效劳动模型和协整方程对新疆经济进行预测的结果表明,从新疆经济发展的历史规律来看,在今后的一定时期内新疆经济会有稳定的增长趋势,但是更高的经济发展目标则需要特殊的政策支持和战略调整。This paper compared and analyzed the development of Xinjiang＇s economy, material capital and human capital since the reform and opening policy was adopted. The results showed that changes in the three variables have maintained a high consistency. Xinjiang＇s economy, physical capital and human capital have a significant positive correlation; and the correlation between economy and physical capital is higher than human capital. The results of effective labor model and cointegration equation show that economic technology level in Xinjiang is very low, the output elasticity of physical capital is higher than the output elasticity of human capital, and the sum of both output elasticity is greater than 1. The prediction, applying ARIMA model, the average economic growth speed, the leap-forward goals, the effective labor model and cointegration equation, finds that Xinjiang economy＇s will be a steady growth trend during a given period,but higher economic development goals require special policy supports and strategic adjustments.

关 键 词：新疆经济 人力资本 物质资本 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济]