亳州市疟疾发病与气象因素关系的研究  

Association between meteorological factor and incidence of malaria in Bozhou city, Anhui province

作　　者：李月[1] 孟郁洁[1] 陈倩倩[1] 戚晓鹏[1] 马家奇[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心公共卫生监测与信息服务中心,北京102206

出　　处：《环境与健康杂志》2014年第11期988-992,F0003,共6页Journal of Environment and Health

基　　金：国家重大科学研究计划项目(2012CB955504)

摘　　要：目的研究安徽省亳州市气象因素与疟疾发病的关系。方法收集亳州市2005—2011年疟疾发病数据及同期气象数据,拟合准泊松quasipoisson分布滞后非线性模型（DLNM）,研究周平均温度、周平均湿度、周平均降雨量对疟疾发病的即时效应、滞后效应和累积效应。结果对周平均温度的即时效应分析显示,随着温度的升高（-5-30℃）,疟疾的发病风险逐渐升高;温度越高,滞后效应的强度越大,最佳滞后时间约为1-3周;当温度为26℃且滞后时间为10周时疟疾发病的累积危险度最高,RR值为228.9（95%CI：8.0-6 547.9）。以降雨量0 mm为参照,降雨量的即时效应无统计学意义（P〉0.05）;但随着滞后天数的增加,累积效应先增加后减小,降雨量越大,最长滞后天数越短;当降雨量为30 mm且累积时间为6周时,疟疾发病的累积危险度最大,RR值为3.79（95%CI：1.38-8.49）。以最低相对湿度31%为参照,周平均相对湿度的即时效应无统计学意义（P〉0.05）;随着滞后时间的增加,疟疾发病的相对危险度呈先增加后减少的趋势,最长滞后期为10周,当滞后时间为4周时疟疾发病的相对危险度最大;随着相对湿度的增加,疟疾发病的累积相对危险度先增加后减少,当相对湿度为62%且滞后10周时的累积效应最大,累积相对危险度为513.58（95%CI：14.70-17 943.94）。结论气象因素如温度、湿度和降雨量对疟疾的发生均有影响,且有一定的滞后作用。Objective To evaluate the relationship between meteorology and malaria in Bozhou city, Anhui province. Methods A quasipoisson distribution lag non-liner model（DLNM） was built to evaluate the association between weekly temperature,relative humidity, weekly rainfall and weekly incidence of malaria in Bozhou city, Anhui province, based on the meteorological data and malaria data from 2005 to 2011. Results Significant positive correlations were found between temperature（-5-30 ℃）and malaria incidence. The delayed effect was the most strong after 1-3 weeks. The highest cumulative RR was 228.9（95%CI：8.0-6 547.9） when the temperature was 26 ℃ and at lag10 weeks; With 0 mm rainfall capacity as the reference, the instant effect of rainfall had no statistical significance. The cumulative RR increased at the beginning, and then decreased with the rise of rainfall. In case of 30 mm rainfall capacity, the correction kept significant during 3-7 weeks, peaking at the sixth week [ RR：3.79（95% CI：1.38-8.49）]; With the lowest relative humidity（31%） as reference, no significant relationship between relative humidity and immediate effect was found. The relative risk was the highest at lag4 weeks, while the relative risk was almost zero at lag10 weeks. With the increase of relative humidity, the cumulative relative risk of malaria increased then decreased.When the relative humidity was 62% and at lag10 weeks, the cumulative effect was the highest[ RR： 513.58（95% CI：14.70-17 943.94）]. Conclusion Meteorological factors such as temperature, humidity and rainfall have impacts on the occurrence of malaria and have certain lag effect.

关 键 词：疟疾 分布滞后非线性模型 气象因素 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]