俄罗斯原油生产和出口现状及未来趋势  

Current situation and future trend of crude oil production and export in Russia

作　　者：戚爱华[1] 曹斌[2] 徐舜华[2] 胡勇[3] 

机构地区：[1]国家发改委综合运输研究所 [2]中国石油规划总院 [3]中国石油天然气集团公司规划计划部

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2015年第2期69-74,111,共6页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：2013年,俄罗斯原油产量为5.23亿吨,约占全球总产量的13%;原油出口量约为2.35亿吨,占国内总产量的44%,主要出口品种乌拉尔(Urals)原油的品质和出口量都有所下降,东西伯利亚—太平洋管道(ESPO)原油的出口量逐年攀升。2014年,俄罗斯原油开采量为5.27亿吨,同比增加0.6%;原油出口量为2.22亿吨,同比减少5.7%。目前俄罗斯原油主要出口通道都在国家的统一管制之下,政府通过对税费以及财政补贴的调整,对俄罗斯原油的生产和出口进行调控。预计未来俄罗斯的原油生产能力将基本保持稳定,也存在较大的减产风险。未来欧洲市场依然是俄罗斯原油出口的主要方向,但规模将有所减小,向亚太地区的出口规模将会相应增加。近期爆发的地缘政治危机不会对俄罗斯原油的出口格局产生本质影响,但会促进中俄能源合作。In 2013, crude oil production in Russia is 523 million tons, accounting for 13% of the world total; and crude export volume was about 235 million tons, accounting for 44% of the national total. Both the quality and export volume of the major exported Ural crude oil were declined, and the export volume of crude oil through the Eastern Siberia–Pacific Ocean(ESPO) oil pipeline climbed year by year. In 2014, the crude production volume of Russia was 527 million tons, up by 0.6% year-on-year; the crude export volume was 222 million tons, down by 5.7%. Currently, the major crude export routes of Russia are all under unified governance of the State, and the government regulates the crude oil production and export of Russia through adjustment of tax and fiscal subsidies. It is forecasted that Russia's crude oil productivity will remain stable but still face high declining risk. In the future, European market will remain the major destination of Russia's crude export, but will see smaller export volume; and the export volume to Asia-Pacific area will grow. The geopolitical crisis occurred recently will not exert substantial impact on the crude oil export landscape of Russia, but will push forward the energy cooperation between China and Russia.

关 键 词：俄罗斯 原油生产 原油出口 地缘政治 能源合作 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济] F755.12