海门市2003—2012年0～14岁儿童死亡状况及趋势分析  

Death status and trend among children under 14 years old in Haimen city from 2003 to 2012

作　　者：陶长余[1] 倪倬健[2] 肖静[3] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省南通市疾病预防控制中心综合业务办,226007 [2]海门市疾病预防控制中心慢病防治科 [3]南通大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学教研室

出　　处：《中国学校卫生》2015年第1期97-99,共3页Chinese Journal of School Health

基　　金：国家自然科学青年基金项目(81202228);江苏省重点实验室开放课题项目(K10003)

摘　　要：目的了解海门市0-14岁儿童死亡状况、死因顺位、变化趋势并预测海门市2013—2015年儿童死亡水平,为制定公共卫生政策提供参考。方法对海门市2003—2012年0-14岁儿童死亡信息进行流行病学描述,运用灰色模型GM（1,1）预测未来3 a 0-14岁儿童死亡趋势。结果 2003—2012年海门市0-14岁儿童平均死亡率为41.38/10万人年,男孩死亡率（47.04/10万人年）高于女孩（35.58/10万人年）,0-〈1,1-〈5,5-〈10,10-14岁组儿童死亡构成比分别为49.41%,20.99%,12.65%和16.95%,死因前3位依次为损伤和中毒（29.61%）、先天畸形变性和染色体异常（24.04%）、起源于围生期的某些情况（21.78%）,共占75.43%。10 a间0-14岁儿童死亡率呈下降趋势。灰色预测模型结果显示,2015年0-14岁儿童死亡率为19.81/10万人年。结论小年龄组儿童是降低儿童死亡率的重点对象,加强孕妇保健和新生儿围产期护理,预防儿童意外伤害,可有效降低0-14岁儿童死亡率。Objective The purpose of this study is to find out the death status,structure and trend of children under 14 years old in Haimen city,and forecast the death level during 2013-2015,thus to provide basis for formulating public health policies.Methods The descriptive epidemiology was used to describe the death information of children under 14 years old in Haimen city from 2003 to 2012,chi-square test was used to compare mortality rate,and the grey model GM（1,1） was used to predict mortality rate of the children under 14 years old during the future three years.Results The average mortality rate of children under14 years old in Haimen city was 41.38 / 100 000 persons per year during 2003 to 2012.The mortality rate of boys was higher than that of girls.Trauma and toxicosis,congenital malformations,degeneration and chromosomal abnormalities,some cases originated in the perinatal period were the leading 3 death causes.There was a decreasing trend in the mortality rate of children under 14 years old during the past ten years.The mortality rate of children under 14 years old in 2015 predicted by grey model is 19.81 / 100 000 persons per year.Conclusion We should continue to strengthen the maternal health care and children＇ s treatment ability in grassroots medical institutions,reinforce the health management,education of the maternal,and the prevention of accidental harm to children,therefore,effectively reduce the mortality rate of children under 14 years old.

关 键 词：死亡 回归分析 儿童 

分 类 号：R195.3[医药卫生—卫生统计学] R821.36[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]