基于气象要素的我国南方低温雨雪冰冻综合评估  

Comprehensive assessment of low temperature,snow and freezing weather in southern China based on meteorological elements

作　　者：毛淑君 李栋梁[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2015年第1期14-26,共13页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2013CB430202);2011年度高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助课题(博导类)(20113228110003);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)资助

摘　　要：利用1962-2012年260个常规气象观测站的逐日资料,使用模糊信息分配方法划分我国南方出现低温雨雪冰冻天气时各气象要素的等级,计算各等级出现的概率,选取合理的气象要素条件建立了低温雨雪冰冻综合评估指数,并给出了我国南方发生低温雨雪冰冻的风险区划.结果表明:日最高气温≤6℃,日最低气温≤0℃,相对湿度≥80%,日照时数≤1.3 h这一综合气象阈值条件能够合理地评估出南方地区低温雨雪冰冻事件发生的次数和持续时间.四川省中南部、云南省东北部和贵州省西部、湖南省东部、江西省北部、安徽省、湖北省大部分地区以及陕西省的部分地区发生低温雨雪冰冻的风险等级最高.近51 a来我国南方低温雨雪冰冻的风险虽有减小的趋势,但近年出现重大灾害的可能性将有所增加.Based on daily data from conventional meteorological stations from 1962 to 2012,the grades of various meteorological elements were divided and the probabilities of each grade were calculated by using fuzzy information distribution method when lowtemperature,snowand freezing weather appeared,which contributed to establish lowtemperature,snowand freezing comprehensive assessment indexes and made further efforts to provide risk zoning in southern China. The results showthat the comprehensive meteorological threshold condition can be used to assess lowtemperature,snowand freezing events＇ frequency and strength reasonably when the event displayed as daily maximum temperature less than or equal to 6 ℃,daily minimum temperature less than or equal to 0 ℃,relative humidity greater than or equal to 80%,and sunshine hours less than or equal to1. 3 hours. South-central part of Sichuan,northeast corner of Yunnan,west of Guizhou,east of Hunan,north of Jiangxi,Anhui,most areas of Hubei and parts of Shaanxi Province exhibit the highest level of risk for occurring lowtemperature,snowand freezing weather. Although the risk of lowtemperature,snowand freezing weather in southern China has decreased in the past 51 years,the probability of major hazards has increased in recent ten years.

关 键 词：我国南方 低温雨雪冰冻 综合评估 风险区划 

分 类 号：P426.33[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]