半参数与非参数可加风险模型对达菲和中药治疗H1N1流感效果的比较  

Comparison of Semi-parametric and Nonparametric Additive Hazards Models: with Tamiflu and Traditional Chinese Medicine to Treat H1N1 Flu Effect for Example

作　　者：曹志强[1,2] 王杨[1] 李卫[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国医学科学院,北京协和医学院,国家心血管病中心,阜外心血管病医院,心血管疾病国家重点实验室,100037 [2]北京师范大学数学科学学院,100875

出　　处：《中国卫生统计》2015年第1期22-25,共4页Chinese Journal of Health Statistics

摘　　要：目的介绍半参数与非参数可加风险模型在事件发生时间分析(time-to-event analysis)方面的应用,并比较它们结果的异同。方法利用鞅方法得到半参数可加风险模型的参数估计,运用核密度估计非参数可加风险模型,用R软件进行相应的计算及统计分析。结果半参数可加风险模型中的系数相当于非参数可加风险模型可变系数的平均。相对于对照组,达菲组、中药组、达菲加中药组分别治疗53、56、29个发热病人就能多一个发热消退的病例。两个模型的生存概率图都表明,达菲、中药、达菲加中药相对不吃药都能有效治疗H1N1流感,中药与达菲的疗效相当,中西药结合的疗效最好。结论在研究者需要对风险的绝对变化进行刻画或Cox比例风险假定不满足时,可加风险模型或许是一个合适的替代。Objective To introduce semi-parametric and nonparametric additive hazards models and its application in time-to-event analysis,and compare similarities and differences of the results. Methods Using the method of martingale to get semi-parametric additive risk model parameter estimation,using kernel density technique to estimate the nonparametric additive risk model,using R softw are to do corresponding calculation and statistical analysis. Results Semi-parametric additive hazard model coefficient is equal to the nonparametric additive hazard model of variable coefficient of the average. Relative to the control group,Tamiflu,traditional Chinese medicine,tamiflu plus traditional Chinese medicine treat 53,56,29 patients respectively can be one more example of a fever subsided. The survival probability plots in tw o models show that,relatively to control group,tamiflu,traditional Chinese medicine,tamiflu plus traditional Chinese medicine all of three are effective in treating H1N1 influenza. Traditional Chinese medicine＇s efficacy is similar to tamiflu,the efficacy of Chinese and Western medicine combined is the best. Conclusion When the absolute change in risk is of primary interest or w hen the proportional hazard assumption for the Cox proportional hazard model is violated,additive hazard model may be more appropriate.

关 键 词：半参数模型 非参数模型 H1N1流感 

分 类 号：O212.1[理学—概率论与数理统计]