基于Vague集与FTA方法的麻醉流程风险评估  

Anesthesia Risk Assessment Based on Vague Set and Fault Tree Analysis

作　　者：刘子先[1] 袁杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理与经济学部

出　　处：《工业工程与管理》2015年第1期115-121,134,共8页Industrial Engineering and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70871086)

摘　　要：麻醉是提高患者安全的首要环节。围手术期麻醉过程受大量随机、模糊和不确定性因素影响而呈现出多态性,传统故障树分析(FTA)在评估面向该类流程风险问题上存在明显缺陷。通过引入Vague集解决麻醉操作中失效事件多态性和失效概率不确定性,并依据有明显边界的麻醉操作阶段来构建面向流程的故障树模型,基于医院麻醉记录、医师经验、可靠性数据并结合TOPAZ模型,对围手术期麻醉流程进行了风险评估。实例验证该方法可行且有效,与现有方法比较分析发现该结果更好地刻画出失效事件随机性和不确定性。Anesthesia is regarded as a leader in patient safety and serves as a model for improving patient safety in healthcare.In view of the stochastic and indeterminate factors in anaesthetic process and shortcomings of traditional fault tree analysis（FTA）used in anesthesia risk assessment,an anesthesia risk assessment approach integrated TOPAZ model are proposed in this paper by modeled a process-oriented fault tree and introduced Vague set theory for the multistate and uncertain probability of bottom events.The validity and feasibility are verified through the case analysis and the results described both the randomness and uncertainty of failure events.The studies we have performed demonstrate a new way for assessing anesthetic or even medical risk.

关 键 词：麻醉风险 风险评估 VAGUE集 故障树分析 

分 类 号：C93[经济管理—管理学] N94[自然科学总论—系统科学]