基于模糊综合评价算法的海运物流风险测算  

Risk Estimation on Marine Logistics Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

作　　者：苏会卫 李佳楠[2] 陆琳[2] 

机构地区：[1]桂林旅游高等专科学校,广西桂林541004 [2]贵州财经大学,贵州贵阳550025

出　　处：《物流技术》2015年第4期134-136,共3页Logistics Technology

基　　金：广西千亿元重大科技攻关工程项目(桂科攻12118017-9D);广西教育厅项目(TB2014481);国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAC16B00)之子课题四(2012BAC16B04);桂林市科学研究与技术开发项目(20140302-3);桂林旅游高等专科学校科研基金重点项目(2013ZD02)

摘　　要：基于多级模糊综合评价模型,以厦门国际货运公司为实例,将海运出口业务中存在的主要风险分为订舱风险、做柜操作风险、出口报关风险、单证风险、船舶公司的风险、财务风险和其他风险,构建三级风险指标体系。运用层次分析法确定权重,建立风险评价矩阵,并利用多级模糊综合评价方法对识别出的风险进行量化分析,对其海运出口业务存在的主要风险进行识别和评价。结果表明,该公司海运出口业务的整体风险评价为"风险较高",在多种因素上存在着风险漏洞。In this paper, based on the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, we divided the risks that might occur in the marine export business into several kinds： booking risk, operational risk, export declaration risk, document risk, shipping enterprise risk,financial risk and other risks and established three-level risk index system by taking a Xiamen international freight enterprise as an example. Applying the AHP method to determine the weight, we established the risk assessment matrix, carried on a quantitative analysis to the identified risks through the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, identified and evaluated the main existing risks in marine export business. The results showed that enterprise was at a high risk in marine export business, and there were risk vulnerabilities on a variety of factors.

关 键 词：国际货代 风险管理 模糊综合评价 层次分析法 

分 类 号：F550.72[经济管理—产业经济]