基于AHP-模糊评价的化工园区综合应急能力研究  

On the comprehensive emergency probability of chemical industry park based on the AHP-fuzzy evaluation method

作　　者：张少刚[1] 赵媚[1] 倪小敏[1] 王浩波[1] 张和平[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学火灾科学国家重点实验室,合肥230026

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2015年第1期77-83,共7页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：十二五科技支撑计划项目(2012BAK13B01)

摘　　要：为了适应化工园区的迅速发展,提高化工园区综合应急能力,减少事故造成的各种损失,构建了化工园区综合应急能力的3级评价指标体系,其中一级评价指标有3个,分别为事前管理与监测能力、事中应急与处置能力、事后善后与总结能力;二级评级指标有8个,分别为日常安全管理与培训、应急资源保障能力、监控与预警能力、通信交流能力、现场指挥协调能力、现场救援能力、善后处理能力和总结分析能力;另外选取了安全管理法律法规、应急机构与预案、专业培训与演练等31个三级评价指标。然后根据层次分析法的原理确定了各指标的权重,最后利用模糊综合评价法建立了化工园区综合应急能力评价模型。利用该模型评价了某化工园区的综合应急能力,结果为"良好",分析了该化工园区综合应急能力的不足之处,并提出了改进措施。This paper is aimed at bringing about an analytic hierarchy process（AHP）-fuzzy model and its applications to the emergency probability assessment of chemical industry park. It is for the said research purpose that we have first of all established an evaluation index system for the assessment in accordance with the principle of science,system and maneuverability,which consists of three kinds of indexes at different grades,including the three first-grade evaluation indexes,eight second-grade evaluation indexes and thirty one third-grade evaluation indexes. In our categoration list,the firstgrade evaluation indexes should include the probability of management and monitoring before the accident,the promptness of the emergency response and manipulation of available human and material resources for the safety and saving control in the process of the accident,and the probability of rehabilitation after the actual accident.The second-grade evaluation indexes in our model are made up of the safety management and the professional training of the accident-fighting human resources,the logistic supporting readiness of the accident-fighting material resources,the monitoring and warning device,the cooperation potentiality of the commanding and the coordinating parties,the on-spot rescue promptness,and,finally,the comprehensive emergency-coping abilities. As to the third-grade evaluation indexes,they may include the rules for safety management,agencies and planning of emergency response,and still other about 30 evaluation indexes. Once all the weighing factors have been worked out according to the theory of AHP,it is necessary to establish a comprehensive model of emergency probability based on the method of fuzzy mathematics,which has been widely adopted for the time being.And,finally,we have managed to implement a case study based on a typical chemical industry park accident with such AHP-Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation technique. Thus,we have also made a detailed discussion of the ＂good＂results we had appreciated by us

关 键 词：安全管理工程 综合应急能力 层次分析法 模糊综合评价法 评价指标体系 化工园区 

分 类 号：X93[环境科学与工程—安全科学]