乌鲁木齐河流域径流与气候变化的年内相关性分析  

Correlation analysis of the runoff and the climate change regularity in terms of one year period in Urumqi River basin

作　　者：邵霜霜[1] 张毓涛[2] 师庆东[1] 刘曼[1] 徐婉婷[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆大学新疆维吾尔自治区绿洲生态重点实验室,干旱生态环境研究所,资源与环境科学学院,乌鲁木齐830046 [2]新疆林业科学院森林生态研究所,乌鲁木齐830046

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2015年第1期350-354,共5页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(31160114);新疆研究生科研创新项目(XJGRI2013025)

摘　　要：为了分析干旱区河流乌鲁木齐河径流在年内的分配及变化特征,定量辨析气温、降水对径流年内变化的驱动作用,根据流域水文气象台站的观测资料,对1993—2012年乌鲁木齐河山区流域降水、气温与径流变化的特征和趋势进行了分析,并对降水、径流的集中期和集中度进行分析,以期发现径流对降水的时滞效应;运用正积温来拟合温度与径流的关系。在此基础上,运用灰色关联度和相关分析法分析径流与气候变化的关联程度。结果表明,降水和气温直接或间接地对径流产生影响,三者各有其年内变化特征,又存在着很大的相关性。In order to analyze the annual water runoff distribution and the changing particularities of the Urumqi River,along with the quantitative estimation of the effects of the temperature and precipitation on the water runoff,this paper wishes to identify the variable characteristics and trends of the temperature,precipitation and the water runoff in the mountainous areas of the Urumqi River basin since 1993. This paper also intends to disclose the time-lag effects between the runoff and the precipitation by examining the trends of their PCP and PCD by using the accumulated temperature to fit the relationship between the temperature and the runoff during the spring melting stage. It is just on the basis of all the aforementioned aspects,this paper has introduced a gray correlation model and correlational analysis method to our study of the mutual relation among the runoff,the temperature,and the precipitation. The results of our correlational and inter-relational investigation and analysis demonstrate that both of the precipitation and temperature have direct and indirect effects on the water runoff in annual variation terms respectively,though there may exist a lot of mutual relevance among themselves. What is more,even though the distribution of the annual runoff and precipitation is uneven,it can still be predicted that their PCPs may all come up in June,in spite of there being a lag effect between them. In addition,though the distribution of temperature within a year or in the melting period of a year appears in a parabola,the relation between the temperature and the runoff remains exponential with a high fitting degree. The results of a Grey correlation analysis and a more careful related correlation analysis turn to be almost consistent,i. e. the effect of precipitation on the runoff can usually be obviously higher than that of the temperature. The description of the response relationship between the runoff and the climate proves to have been deepening especially in the arid areas of Urumqi River and its branche

关 键 词：环境学 径流量变化 乌鲁木齐河流域 降水 气温 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] P339[天文地球—水文科学]