新一轮中东动荡期形势评估  

Assessment on the New Round of Middle East Turbulence

作　　者：田文林[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国现代国际关系研究院

出　　处：《阿拉伯世界研究》2015年第2期24-37,共14页Arab World Studies

摘　　要：经过中东剧变数年发酵,动荡已成为中东"新常态"。一是民主转型未能拯救中东,治理模式探索任重道远;二是地区博弈呈现"地缘争夺+教派冲突"的"新冷战"态势;三是"伊斯兰国"异军突起,中东地区体系根基动摇;四是美国既定战略部署被打乱,中东战略进退失据。中东已经进入新一轮动荡期,在可见的未来,这种状况短期内难以改观。After several years characteristic of current Middle East unrest, ＂turbulence＂ become the main situation. Firstly, democracy transformation fails to pave a new way for the Middle East states, and these states have to continue to search for the suitable governance model in the future; Secondly, gamble of regional power emerges as a New Cold War, which is ＂geopolitics competion plus sectarian conflict＂. Thirdly, the rise of ＂Islamic State＂ shakes the basis of regional system. Finally, U.S.＇s existing plan is disrupted and faces a dilemma. In the near future, Middle East will come into a period of turbulence.

关 键 词：中东 治理模式 地区博弈 美国战略 

分 类 号：D8[政治法律—政治学]