地面气温的概率预报试验  

Probability Forecast Experiments of Surface Temperature

作　　者：李刚 吴春燕 肖若 

机构地区：[1]贵州省气象台,贵阳550002 [2]贵州省关岭县气象局,关岭561300 [3]贵州省平坝县气象局,平坝561100

出　　处：《气象科技》2015年第1期97-102,150,共7页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：公益性行业科研专项(GYHY201006039);开放基金(黔气科合KF[2014]06)资助

摘　　要：基于TIGGE（THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble）资料,对中国气象局（CMA）集合数值预报产品进行温度概率预报试验。分别应用降尺度技术、系统偏差订正及降尺度与系统偏差订正相结合的方法对2008年1月的气温进行试验。结果表明,通过Brier评分和ROC分析的检验,在24~240h预报中,都得到了明显改进,在进行降尺度和系统偏差订正相结合的方法下,预报技巧的改进更加明显,优于单个方法独自使用的效果。RPS评分检验则表明：在168h内,两种改进方案相结合的概率预报效果明显优于单一改进方法的使用;168h后,预报效果逐渐下降不如系统偏差订正的效果,但优于降尺度技术的改进。总体而言,3种方法对地面气温的概率预报都有正的技巧预报,对预报时效较短（7天前）温度概率预报技巧高于预报时效较长的（7天后）。Based on China Meteorological Administration（CMA）ensemble numerical forecast products from the TIGGE data,the probability forecast experiments of the surface temperature are carried out.The results show that by using the methods of Downscaling（D）,Systemic deviation（S）,and combination of Downscaling and Systemic deviation（D-S）,through the Brier Score（BS）and Relative Operating Characteristic（ROC）tests,forecast skills have great improvement in 24-to 240-hour forecasts.Particularly,the method D-S is much better than methods D and S.Calculations of ranked probability score（RPS）indicate that the result of the method D-S is greater than those of methods D and S before 168-hour forecasts;after 168 hours,the method D-S is much less than that of the method S but better than the of the method D.Averagely,the probability forecasts of three methods are all skillful for surface temperature.The skill of probability forecast for surface temperature before 168 hours is greater than the skill for the later 168 hours.

关 键 词：地面气温 概率预报 不确定性 TIGGE 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]