华北区域性低能见度天气的自动识别及预报  

Automatic Identification and Prediction of Low Visibility Weather in North China

作　　者：倪江波[1,2] 李文才[3] 尚可政[1] 王式功[1] 李德帅[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学大气科学学院 [2]中国人民解放军93582部队 [3]中国人民解放军92493部队中心气象台

出　　处：《干旱气象》2015年第1期174-179,共6页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：北京市科委首都蓝天行动培育专项(Z141100001014013);国家人口与健康科学数据共享平台(交通安全与健康出行气象保障服务专题);兰州大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项(lzujbky-2013-m03)共同资助

摘　　要：利用2002～2011年的能见度观测资料以及NCEP格点资料，采用天气学方法研究了华北地区的低能见度天气过程。结果表明：造成研究区域低能见度的500 hPa天气形势可分为3种类型：2槽1脊型、低槽型、纬向气流型；用特征物理量作为这3种天气型的入型判据，建立了华北区域性低能见度天气的自动识别系统；并在此基础上，利用K指数、露点温度差以及500 hPa和850 hPa的假相当位温差等天气诊断物理量，进行第二次判别，进一步消空，最后制作低能见度天气预报。利用以上建立的预报方案，对2002～2011年进行冬半年逐日回代检验，预报准确率达到了78％左右；对2012年的试预报结果为：出现3d区域性低能见度天气过程完全报对，试验结果表明预报方法达到了较好的效果。By using the data of the visibility observations and NCEP reanalysis data during 2002-2011,the processes of low visibility weather in North China has been studied. The results show that the circulation situation on 500 hPa that caused low visibility weather in studied area could be divided into three types including two troughs and a ridge type,low trough type and zonal flow type,and the auto-matic identification system could be established to recognize the three weather types and eliminate other situations from these three types. On this basis,the use of K-index,the dew point temperature difference and pseudo-equivalent potential temperature differ-ence between 500 hPa and 850 hPa gave a further physical diagnosis,and at last the forecast of low visibility weather could be ob-tained. The low visibility weathers occurring in North China in 2012 were forecasted by using the method mentioned above,the results show that the prediction effect of this forecast method was fine.

关 键 词：低能见度 天气形势 槽脊自动识别 物理量诊断 

分 类 号：S166[农业科学—农业气象学]