大兴安岭森林资源的动态灰色预测  

Dynamic Grey Prediction of Daxing'an Mountains Forest

作　　者：赵新泉[1] 马燕娥[2] 

机构地区：[1]中南林业科技大学,长沙410004 [2]国家林业局调查规划设计院

出　　处：《东北林业大学学报》2015年第2期98-100,115,共4页Journal of Northeast Forestry University

摘　　要：应用灰色理论系统,对大兴安岭林区森林资源的森林蓄积量、有林地面积、森林覆盖率3个指标进行动态预测分析。结果表明:运用灰色预测建立的模型,预测结果经检验,精度较高;大兴安岭林区森林资源,在未来30 a,整体呈增加趋势;到2018年,森林蓄积量达到1.33×109m3、有林地面积达到1.74×107hm2、森林覆盖率达到82.28%。We studied the dynamic analysis and prediction for forest volume,forest area,forest coverage rate of forest resources of Daxing＇an Mountain Forest Region by using gray system theory. The prediction results of grey prediction model have high precision by inspection. The forest resources of Daxing＇an Mountains Forest Region will continue to increase in the next 30 years. By 2018,forest volume,forest land area,and the forest coverage rate will reach 1. 33 × 109m3,1. 74 ×107hm2,and 82. 28%,respectively.

关 键 词：大兴安岭 森林资源 灰色预测 预测模型 

分 类 号：S757[农业科学—森林经理学]