2006-2010年沈阳市心脑血管疾病死亡的时空聚集性分析  

Analysis on spatiotemporal clusters of mortalities of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases in Shenyang City in 2006-2010

作　　者：刘合岭[1] 苏弘博 李恂[2] 关鹏[1] 沙宪政[1] 尹勇[1] 黄德生[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国医科大学,辽宁沈阳110001 [2]沈阳市疾病预防控制中心慢性病预防与控制科

出　　处：《实用预防医学》2015年第3期262-265,共4页Practical Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71073175)

摘　　要：目的分析沈阳市中心城区心脑血管疾病死亡现状并探测其时空分布特征,为北方重工业城市心脑血管疾病的预防提供参考。方法基于沈阳市2006-2010年中心城区(和平、沈河、大东、皇姑、铁西)心脑血管疾病死亡数据,描述统计后利用Sa TScan软件对其进行时空聚集性分析并结合Arc GIS软件绘制专题地图。结果 2006-2010年,不同年度心、脑血管疾病粗死亡率间差异均有统计学意义(Pearsonχ2=36.43、48.36,P均<0.01);2006-2010年期间各地区间心、脑血管粗死亡率间差异有统计学意义(Pearsonχ2=345.61、731.21,P均<0.01)。心脑血管疾病死亡病例时空上呈现明显聚集性分布。心血管疾病的一级聚类区域出现在2007年9月28日-2010年3月18日间的大东区,相对危险度为1.23;脑血管疾病死亡的一级聚类区域位于2006年10月22日-2009年4月19日间的铁西区,相对危险度为1.37。结论心脑血管疾病死亡在沈阳市内中心城区存在明显的时空聚集性,该分布特征对于探究危险因素或开展针对性的预防措施都将提供参考和借鉴。Objective To analyze the current mortalities of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases and their spatiotemporal distribution in central urban districts of Shenyang City so as to provide references for prevention of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases in northern heavy industry cities in China. Methods Based on the data about mortalities of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases in central urban districts（ Heping,Shenhe,Dadong,Huanggu and Tiexi） of Shenyang City from 2006 to 2010,descriptive statistics were conducted to detect spatiotemporal distribution,and then,retrospective time-space analysis was performed to analyze the spatiotemporal clusters of mortalities of cardiovascular diseases in Sa TScan after geographical information system database was constructed via Arc GIS software. Results There were statistically significant differences in the crude mortalities of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases among the years from 2006 to 2010（ Pearson χ^2= 36. 43,χ^2= 48. 36,both P〈0. 01）,and the differences were also found among different geographical districts（ Pearson χ^2= 345. 61,χ^2= 731. 21,both P〈0. 01）. The significant spatiotemporal discrete clusters of mortalities of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases were identified. As for the mortality of cardiovascular disease,the most likely cluster was identified in Dadong District from September 28,2007 to March 18,2010,with the relative risk of 1. 23. With respect to the mortality of cerebrovascular disease,the most likely cluster was identified in Tiexi District from October 22,2006 to April 19,2009,with the relative risk of 1. 37. Conclusions There are significant spatiotemporal cluster patterns for the distribution of mortalities of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases in Shenyang City,which can provide references and experience for identifying the risk factors and conducting the targeted prevention and control measures.

关 键 词：心脑血管疾病 死亡率 地理信息系统 时空分析 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]