建立非并网风电适宜产业的指标体系研究  

Study on index system of suitable industry for non-grid-connected wind power

作　　者：刘勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省宏观经济研究院,南京210013

出　　处：《中国工程科学》2015年第3期60-66,共7页Strategic Study of CAE

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目资助(2013BAB08B04)

摘　　要：本文主要阐述非并网风电适宜产业指标评价体系的内涵及其构建原则,确定指标体系的层次以及各个指标的科学涵义和计算方法,并根据所构建的指标体系进行案例分析。本指标体系分为两个层次,第一层包含4个方面的宏观指标群,分别反映非并网风电的经济、社会和环境以及风电随机波动性特征;第二层反映在第一层次里各个宏观指标群的具体构成指标状况。指标权重的确定依据层次分析法,对各指标进行分类,建立多层次结构,构造成对比较矩阵,并根据随机一致性检验,经过多轮综合分析最终确定指标体系中各个层次指标的权重情况,权重的确定方法和过程客观、严谨、科学。在此基础上,根据指标间的内在联系建立综合评价模型,最终形成科学、合理、较为完善的指标综合评价体系。The index system is divided into two levels：the first level includes macro index＆nbsp;groups in four aspects,respectively reflecting the characteristics of economy,society,environ-ment,and random fluctuation of wind power;the second level reflects specific index construc-tion of each macro index group in the first level. The weight of an index at each level in index system is eventually determined by level analysis through classifying each index,establishing a multi-level structure,building a paired comparison matrix,and through many rounds of com-prehensive analysis in accordance with CR testing. The method and the process of weight deter-mination is objective,rigorous,and scientific. A comprehensive evaluation model is built ac-cording to the intrinsic link between indexes,and finally,a scientific,reasonable,and im-proved system of comprehensive index evaluation is formed. The index system shall observe combination of the current interests with long-term interests,economic,and ecological benefits with social benefits and static analysis with dynamic analysis and take account of guidance,sys-tematic,scientific and adaptive principles in the process of its establishment.

关 键 词：非并网风电 适宜产业 指标体系 

分 类 号：F224.9[经济管理—国民经济]