我国风电装机容量演化的系统动力学研究  

A Study on the Evolution of Wind Power Installed Capacity in China Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：徐鑫[1] 杨洋[2] 

机构地区：[1]安徽大学数学科学学院,安徽合肥230601 [2]江苏大学管理学院,江苏镇江212013

出　　处：《枣庄学院学报》2015年第2期67-74,共8页Journal of Zaozhuang University

基　　金：安徽省教育厅项目(项目编号:KJ2011Z018);安徽大学"211"基金项目(项目编号:2009QN029B);安徽大学创新团队(安徽大学A级创新团队"基础数学"发展计划)

摘　　要：众所周知,经济发展,电力先行.目前,我国使用的电力73%来自于燃煤发电,但高污染、高能耗等问题已成为制约煤电发展的短板.风能作为一种零污染、零排放的可再生能源,已开始被广泛利用,但风能资源的开发受到多重因素的影响,是一个复杂的交互系统.本文利用VENSIM软件构建风电装机容量演化的系统动力学模型,对我国风电装机容量进行分析,得出技术可开发量、技术学习率、产业系统演化系数等对风电装机容量的不同影响.As we all know,electric power development promotes economic development. At present,73% of China＇s use of power comes from coal- fired power,but high pollution and high energy consumption problems have restricted the development of coal- fired power. Wind power,as a kind of zero pollution,zero emissions renewable energy,has begun to be widely used,but the development of wind energy resources influenced by multiple factors,and it is a complicated interaction system. This paper uses VENSIM software to build the system dynamics model aboutthe evolution of wind power installed capacity,and to simulate for analyzing China＇s wind installed capacity,it is concluded that technical exploitation amount,wind power technology learning rate,wind power industry system evolution coefficient etc. influence wind power installed capacity differently.

关 键 词：风电成本 煤电成本 装机容量 系统动力学1 

分 类 号：TK89[动力工程及工程热物理—流体机械及工程]