工业化、城镇化进程中电力需求分析及预测  

Analysis and Forecasting of Power Demand in Industrialization,Urbanization Process

作　　者：柴建[1,2] 卢全莹[1] 张钟毓 汪寿阳[2] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学国际商学院,陕西西安710062 [2]中国科学院国家数学与交叉科学中心,北京100190

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2015年第1期164-172,共9页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71103115);中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目(2012M510580);陕西省软科学研究计划项目(2012KRM95);大学生创新创业训练计划项目(201210781026)

摘　　要：随着工业化、城镇化进程的不断加快,我国电力需求量将持续上升。电力的充足供应是我国经济稳步发展的重要保证,故合理准确的对电力需求进行分析及预测具有重要的现实意义。基于此,分析我国电力需求现状,利用通径分析筛选电力消费需求的核心驱动因素。在模型选择的基础上,基于单变量(ETS、ARIMA模型)和多变量(情景分析)两个维度进行电力需求量分析及预测。结果表明:GDP每提高1%使得电力需求量提高0.5249%;工业化水平每提高1%使得电力需求量提高2.2146%,城镇化水平每提高1%使电力需求量相应提高1.0076%。"十二五"末中国电力消费需求量将近61425.96KW/h,2020年中国电力消费需求将近81410.10KW/h。With the development of the industrialization ,the urbanization process is accelerating .China’ s power demand will continue to rise .The power supply is an important guarantee for the steady development of our econ-omy.Therefore, a reasonable and accurate analysis of electricity demand and forecast is of important practical significance .This paper uses path analysis for screening the core of the electric power consumption demand based on this analysis of the current situation of China ’ s power demand .We analyze and forecast power demand based on single variables（ETS, ARIMA）and multivariate（scenario analysis）two dimensions based on model selection . The results show that GDP for every 1%increase in the electricity demand in 0 .5249%;the level of industriali-zation for every 1% increase in power demand has increased by 2.2146%, the level of urbanization for every 1%increase in power demand has increased by 1 .0076%.At the end of “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, the con-sumption capacity of Chinese electric power reaches nearly 61425.96KW/h.By 2020,China electric power con-sumption will reach nearly 81410.10KW/h.

关 键 词：预测科学 ETS ARIMA 通径分析 电力需求 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]