我国生猪价格的周期性波动:实证分析与政策思考  

The Cyclical Fluctuations of China's Pig Prices:Empirical Analysis and Policy Thinking

作　　者：谢杰[1] 李鹏[2] 王济民[3] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学经济学院,浙江杭州310018 [2]浙江工商大学财务与会计学院,浙江杭州310018 [3]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《中国畜牧杂志》2015年第6期44-48,72,共6页Chinese Journal of Animal Science

基　　金：教育部人文社科项目(10YJC790298);浙江省高校人文社科重点研究基地(浙江工商大学应用经济学)项目(JYTyyjj20130203);教育部重点研究基地浙江工商大学现代商贸研究中心项目(13JDSM07YB)

摘　　要：本文采用H-P滤波方法分解出2000年1月至2014年9月间生猪价格、猪肉价格、仔猪价格的趋势和周期,并结合猪粮比分析猪价周期波动特征。研究发现:生猪价格、猪肉价格、仔猪价格波动周期大多数超过40个月,一般下跌持续时间较长;猪粮比对识别猪价周期具有一定指向作用。动物疫病、金融危机等外部冲击引发猪价大幅周期波动,防止猪价过度下跌预案的实施在短期起一定效果。本文基于实证分析,并就如何借力"土地新政"、"金融改革"等新国策,对构建平抑猪价大幅周期波动的长效机制进行了政策思考。The trends and cycles were extracted from the time series of pig prices,,piglet prices,and pork prices by means of H-P filter method,which covered the period from January 2000 to September 2014.We combined the trends and the pig/grain price ratios to analysize the cyclical characteristics of pig prices.The main research findings are as follows：The price fluctuation cycles of pig prices,,piglet prices,and pork prices mostly lasts more than 40 months.The durations of price falling are generally longer than the durations of price rising.The pig/grain price ratios have directional function that could help to identify prices cycles.External shocks（such as animal epidemics,financial crisis） caused sharp cyclical fluctuations of pig prices.The pig prices are recently falling in choppy trading.The emergency plan that could be used to prevent excessive prices falling has some effects in short term.We had conducted the policy thinking of building long-term mechanism to tame pig prices sharp fluctuations,which based on the findings of empirical analysis and new national policies,such as ＂New Land Policy＂ and financial reform.

关 键 词：生猪价格 H-P滤波 猪粮比 周期波动 政策思考 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济] F064.1