近期碳排放趋势对气候变化历史责任归因的影响  

Influence of recent carbon emissions on the attribution of responsibility for climate change

作　　者：魏婷[1] 董文杰[2,3] 武炳义[1] 杨世莉[2,3] 燕青[4] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,气候系统研究所,北京100081 [2]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [3]北京师范大学未来地球研究院,珠海519087 [4]中国科学院大气物理研究所,竺可桢-南森国际研究中心,北京100029

出　　处：《科学通报》2015年第7期674-680,共7页Chinese Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(41330527);全球变化重大研究计划(2010CB950504);中央高校基本科研业务费专项(2012YBXS27)资助

摘　　要：以减排为目的的国际谈判依赖于对气候变化历史责任的归因.近年来发展中国家快速的工业化使其工业碳排放量不断增加并超过了发达国家,这对以往的不含近期碳排放影响的气候变化历史责任划分提出了新的挑战.本文利用耦合了碳循环过程的CESM（community earth system model）模式,模拟研究了发达国家和发展中国家近期的工业碳排放对气候变化历史责任归因的影响.结果表明：将以往研究中的1850-2005年的历史责任归因延长到2011年,模拟的工业革命初期以来大气CO2浓度的升高、大气升温、海洋暖化以及北半球海冰的消融,有55%-62%的责任来自于发达国家的工业碳排放,其余38%-45%来自于发展中国家的碳排放.与不包含近期（2006-2011年）碳排放计算的结果相比,发达（发展中）国家对气候变化的历史责任减小（增大）了1%-2%,因此近期的碳排放趋势对长期的气候变化历史责任归因的影响很小.此外,尽管统计的近年来发展中国家的碳排放量显著增长并超过了发达国家,但忽略了国际贸易带来的发达国家向发展中国家转移碳排放量,从而转嫁历史责任的问题,未来需要进一步考虑排放转移对气候变化历史责任归因的影响.International negotiations on carbon emission reduction largely depend on the attribution of historical responsibility for climate change. In recent years, carbon emissions of developing countries have clearly increased because of rapid industrialization and now exceed those of developed countries. However, recent carbon emissions （2006--2011） have not been considered in previous attribution studies. In this study, we investigate the influence of recent carbon emissions on historical responsibilities of developed and developing countries, using a fully coupled global climate-carbon model CESM （Community Earth System Model）. The simulations demonstrate that developed （developing） countries contributed about 55%-62% （38%--45%） to global CO2 increase, temperature rise, upper ocean warming, and sea ice reduction by 2011. Compared with results excluding recent carbon emissions, the responsibility of developed （developing） countries is reduced （increased） by 1%-2%. These results indicate that carbon emissions in recent years have little influence on the long-term attribution of historical responsibility. Although recent carbon emissions in developing countries have grown significantly and now exceed those of developed countries, emissions and corresponding responsibility transferred from the developed to developing world through international trade have been ignored. This is a topic that requires further study.

关 键 词：近期碳排放 气候变化 地球系统模式 历史责任 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]