年楚河流域径流变化及其对气候变化的响应  

Runoff Variation of the Nianchu River in Yarlung Tsangpo River Basin and Its Response to Climate Change

作　　者：顿珠加措 

机构地区：[1]西藏水文水资源勘测局日喀则水文水资源分局,西藏日喀则857000

出　　处：《人民黄河》2015年第4期33-37,共5页Yellow River

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA05110102);水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室专项(1069-50985512)

摘　　要：采用雅鲁藏布江支流年楚河流域控制站日喀则水文站1956—2012年天然径流量资料以及同期气温、降水量逐月资料,分析了年楚河流域57 a降水、气温和径流变化特征;利用月水量平衡模型对年楚河流域逐月径流变化进行模拟,验证了月水量平衡模型在研究区的适应性。结果表明:年楚河流域逐月径流量变化相对平稳,年内分配极不均匀,汛期与枯水期径流量相差较大,汛期径流量占全年径流量的67%;对月水量平衡模型参数进行分析,认为年楚河径流敏感性模型参数主要为土壤水蓄水容量和直接径流系数;气候变化对径流影响的敏感性分析显示,降水量增加对径流的影响更大,气温升高对径流减少影响较小。This paper analyzed the natural runoff data,monthly temperature and precipitation data of Xigaze Hydrological Station,the control station of Nianchu River basin on a tributary of the Brahmaputra River,from 1956 to 2012,to explore the variation characteristics of precipi-tation,temperature and runoff. Then it used the monthly water balance model to simulate the monthly changes of runoff in Nianchu basin, and verified the adaptation of this model in the research area. The results prove that:the monthly change of runoff is relatively stable in Nian-chu River basin,but annual distribution of runoff is uneven as the discharge of flood season and dry period varies a lot,where the former cov-ers 67% of annual runoff;by analyzing the parameters of monthly water balance model,the sensitive parameters in Nianchu River basin are soil water storage capacity(STC)and direct runoff coefficient(drofrac);the sensitivity analysis of impact of climate change on runoff shows that the increasing precipitation has more sensitive impact on runoff than that of the reducing precipitation,and the temperature rise has less effect on runoff.

关 键 词：月水量平衡模型 气候变化 敏感性分析 径流变化 年楚河流域 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P331[天文地球—水文科学]