非农就业压力下推进我国农民工城镇就业的行业选择研究  

Research on the Choice of Industries Which Can Promote the Employment of Rural Migrant Workers in Cities——Based on the Pressure of Non-farm Sector Employment in China

作　　者：赵杨[1] 孙秀亭[2] 谭洁[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京100044 [2]山东行政学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《预测》2015年第2期34-40,共7页Forecasting

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金资助项目(12YJC790282);北京市社会科学基金资助项目(14JGB045)

摘　　要：本文利用行业就业吸纳总量与吸纳效率相结合的分析方法,找出了对我国农民工城镇就业吸纳能力较强的7个重点行业。其后,利用上述行业在2003-2011年9年间增加值及农民工就业人数两个基础数据进行相关性分析后认为：5个行业中农民工就业结构与增加值结构存在较为密切的关联;同时,7个重点行业的单位增加值就业指标均逐年持续下降,意味着资本替代与技术进步对农民工就业的＂挤出＂效应越来越明显。因而,从提高行业增加值来提升农民工城镇就业的角度而言,需要重新审视产业升级的速度和方式,不能盲目地仅发展第三产业,而是要大力扶持上述5个行业并维持和巩固其余2个行业的发展规模。This article finds 7 industries absorbing more employment of rural migrant workers than other industries through the method combining absorbed total and absorbed efficiency of industry employment. With the correlation analysis of the added value and the number of employed rural migrant workers of above 7 industries from 2003 to 2011,this article concludes that the structure of employment and sectors＇ value added in 5 industries has close association. The number of employed people per unit added value in the above 7 industries continue to decline year by year,which means that ＂crowding out ＂ effect on the employment of migrant workers by capital substitution and technological progress becomes apparent. Thus,it is necessary to reassess the pace and mode of industrial upgrading from the perspective of raise the employment level of rural migrant workers in urban areas by enhancing the value added of the corresponding industries. This paper indicates China should support these 5 industries and maintain the rest 2 industries in the scale of development in instead of only developing the tertiary industry blindly.

关 键 词：产业结构 就业结构 农民工 非农就业 城镇就业 

分 类 号：F241.4[经济管理—劳动经济]