鄱阳湖生态经济区血吸虫病疫情预测的研究  

Prediction for Schistosomiasis Prevalence in Poyang Lake Eco-economic Region

作　　者：王玲[1,2] 杨万水[1,3] 汪鑫[1,3] 赵浩[1,3] 范文燕[1,3] 王伟业[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]九江学院基础医学院,江西九江332000 [2]南昌大学公共卫生学院,江西南昌330006 [3]江西省鄱阳湖生态经济研究中心血吸虫病研究室,江西九江332000

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2015年第7期1293-1296,1309,共5页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71463030);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(10YJAZH075);江西省科技支撑计划项目(20112BBG70036);江西省高校人文社会科学研究项目(JC1225)

摘　　要：目的对鄱阳湖生态经济区血吸虫病的疫情进行预测,为建立血吸虫病疫情预警体系和防控机制提供科学依据。方法收集2003-2012年鄱阳湖生态经济区血吸虫病疫情资料,运用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型预测血吸虫病2013-2020年钉螺面积、慢性血吸虫病患病率、耕牛感染率等,并引进环境干涉因子修正预测结果。结果对血吸虫病各项指标建立了预测模型并进行了中长期预测,疫情指标中除了人群患病率有增高趋势外,其他指标均有不同程度的降低。连续三年钉螺面积预测值分别为23 950.9855 hm2,23 175.8481 hm2,22 737.8290 hm2。人群患病率预测值分别为1.6107%,1.9828%,2.3872%。慢性病患病率预测值分别为0.0240%,0.0547%,0.0442%。晚期病人数预测值分别为473,462,457。急性感染者数预测值分别为18,9,6。新感染者数预测值分别为597,509,409。病牛数预测值分别为803,766,716。耕牛感染率预测值分别为23.5376%,19.3206%,17.0951%。结论血吸虫病疫情得到明显控制,未来疫情整体呈下降趋势,但人群患病率有回升可能,预测结果还需进一步验证。Objective To predict the schistosomiasis prevalence in Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone of China, and to provide reference for building schistosomiasis early warning system and the further policy of prevention and control. Methods Grey model（1, 1） was applied to predict the schistosomiasis prevalence, oncomelania area as well as the rates of cow infection in a series of 8years（2013-2020）, using data from 2003 to 2012 in Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone, while adjusting for environmental interference factors. Results An increasing trend was observed for schistosomiasis prevalence in Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone during 2013 to 2020; However, there was a decreasing trend for other observed indexes. The predicted values of oncomelania area were 23950.9855hm2, 23175.8481hm2, 22737.8290hm2, respectively in the following three years. The predicted values of prevalence rate in crowd were 1.6107%, 1.9828%, 2.3872%, respectively in the following three years. The predicted values of chronic disease prevalence rate were 0.0240%, 0.0547%, 0.0442%, respectively, in the following three years. The predicted values of terminal patient were 473, 462, 457 respectively in the following three years. The predicted values of acute infection were 18, 9, 6respectively in the following three years. The predicted values of new infection were 597, 509, 409 respectively in the following three years. The predicted values of affected cattle were 803, 766, 716, respectively in the following three years. The predicted values of the rate of cattle were 23.5376%, 19.3206%, 17.0951%, respectively in the following three years. Conclusion In summary, the increasing trend of schistosomiasis prevalence was observed in Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone, future studies are needed to refute or confirm our findings.

关 键 词：血吸虫病 灰色理论 环境干涉因子 预测 

分 类 号：R181.8[医药卫生—流行病学]