普陀沿海风暴潮淹没危险性评估  

Inundation Risk Assessment of Storm Surge Along Putuo Coastal Areas

作　　者：何佩东[1] 左军成[1] 顾云碧 张蓓[2] 亢兴[2] 张慧[2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学物理海洋研究所,江苏南京210000 [2]国家海洋局东海预报中心,上海200136

出　　处：《海洋湖沼通报》2015年第1期1-8,共8页Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(2013564311);海洋公益性行业科研专项(201005019)资助

摘　　要：基于ADCIRC模型,建立了1套适用于舟山市普陀区的高分辨率风暴潮漫滩数值模式,对历史上影响该海域最严重的台风——9711号"维尼"进行风暴潮过程模拟,结果与实测吻合良好。以9711号台风路径为基础,构造了对普陀区沿海最有利增水的台风路径,并设定了5个不同强度的天气系统,充分考虑海堤对风暴潮淹没的影响,模拟得到了不同强度等级下普陀沿海风暴潮的最大可能淹没范围。结果表明,将风暴增水叠加到当地的天文高潮位上时,普陀区本岛区域和六横岛地区都存在着风暴潮淹没风险,水位均超过了当地的警戒潮位线,由于其近岸区海堤内的高程普遍较低,一旦出现海水漫堤的情况,将在普陀主城镇区发生大面积的淹没,淹没水深最大达2.5m左右,淹没面积达到26km2。A storm surge inundation numerical simulation model with high resolution has been established for Zhoushan Putuo Area by using the ADCIRC.The numerical simulation was carried on form9711 typhoon process which was most serious in the history and the calculated results agree well with the observation.A typhoon track was designed based on 9711 typhoon,which could cause the maximum storm surge over the entire region.Five levels weather system was developed by guidelines of the storm surge risk assessment.In five ranks of storm surge the biggest inundation extent was simulated at Putuo area.Inundation risk assessment indicate that when the maximum storm surge superimposed on the high astronomical tide,most parts of Putuo areas had storm surge disaster risk and the main urban area of Putuo would be largely flooded due to the low elevation of Putuo coastal areas.The maximum value of submerged depth reached 2.5m,inundated area reached 26km^2.

关 键 词：ADCIRC模型 风暴潮 溢流 淹没危险性评估 

分 类 号：P731.23[天文地球—海洋科学]