滚动多维度城市饱和负荷预测研究  

Study on Urban Saturated Power Load Forecasting based on Rolling Multi-dimension Method

作　　者：赵会茹[1] 周佳[1] 李娜娜[1] 韩新阳[2] 霍慧娟 薛万磊 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206 [2]国网能源研究院,北京100052 [3]国网山东省电力公司经济技术研究院,山东济南252000

出　　处：《中国电力》2015年第3期21-26,共6页Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然基金资助项目(71373076);国家电网公司科技项目~~

摘　　要：饱和负荷的研究对城市电网远景规划以及经济社会与电网协调发展具有重要意义。首先综合考虑经济发展、产业结构、城市发展水平和居民生活水平等经济社会发展因素对饱和负荷的影响,筛选出适用于城市饱和负荷预测的经济社会发展指标;其次,介绍了用于经济社会发展指标预测的Logistic模型,并对提出的滚动多维度城市饱和负荷预测模型原理进行了阐述;最后,以北京市为例,在对其经济社会指标进行预测的基础上,运用所提出的模型对北京市饱和负荷进行了分析,实证结果表明本文提出的城市饱和负荷预测新方法是有效可行的。The study of saturated power load has important significance on long-term planning of urban power grid and coordinated development between economy society and power grid. The economic and social development indices for urban saturated power load forecasting are firstly selected with consideration of impacts of economic development, industry structure, urban development level and people＇ s living standards. The Logistic model of economic and social development indices forecasting is introduced. The proposed urban saturated power load forecasting model based on roiling multi-dimensions method is then analyzed. Finally, the economic and social development indices of Beijing are forecasted, and the saturated power load is analyzed by employing the proposed model. The testing result shows effectiveness and practical of the proposed method.

关 键 词：饱和负荷 滚动多维度预测模型 经济社会发展指标 Logistic曲线 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济] F224