基于动态面板数据的国际储备币种结构影响因素分析--兼论人民币成为国际储备货币的前景  

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Distribution of International Reserve Currencies Based on Dynamic Panel Data and the Prospect of RMB Internationalization

作　　者：姜晶晶[1] 孙科[2] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学,北京100083 [2]中国银行问市场交易商协会,北京100033

出　　处：《金融研究》2015年第2期57-75,共19页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(项目批准号:71073021)的资助

摘　　要：本文基于主要国家1980-2012年截面数据,使用动态面板广义矩估计(GMMDPD)实证检验了经济规模、经常账户差额、财政稳健度、使用惯性等因素对储备货币选择的影响程度。结果表明,各币种成为储备货币除与宏观经济基础因素相关外,使用惯性及网络外部性也是关键影响因素。人民币要走出去,除要夯实内部宏观基础外,还需把握外部契机。We tested the factors influencing major international reserve currencies empirically with GMM - DPD based on the panel data covering the year from 1980 to 2012. The factors consist of GDP ratio, current account ratio, fiscal soundness, financial openness, the inertia and so on. The outcome indicates that, reserve currencies distribution not only related to basic macroeconomic factors but also to inertia and network externality. It＇ s necessary to enhance the internal economic fundamentals as well as to seize external opportunities for RMB going abroad.

关 键 词：国际储备 惯性 离岸市场 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]