具有固定时滞的经济周期模型的动态分析  

A Dynamic Analysis of the Business Cycle Model with a Fixed-time Delay

作　　者：李正辉[1] 郑玉航[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学金融与统计学院,湖南长沙410079

出　　处：《经济数学》2015年第1期75-79,共5页Journal of Quantitative Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(14ATJ004);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持项目(NCET-12-0173);博士后特别资助项目(2014T70765);中国博士后基金项目(2013M531)资助

摘　　要：在经济活动中,投资行为和资本存量存在一定的时滞效应,这会影响经济周期模型的动态行为,进而使得投资政策对经济的稳定调整复杂化.考虑到资本存量的预期时间以及投资时滞对经济活动的影响,采用Hopf分岔理论,研究具有固定时滞的经济周期模型的均衡点的稳定性以及形成经济周期的条件.研究发现,投资过程中的投资时滞,以及投资决策中对于资本存量的预测时间构成经济周期产生的诱因;同时可通过政府投资政策调整达到预期均衡目标,这对保持经济周期稳定及经济政策制定有一定的指导作用.In economic activities,there is a certain time lag effect in investment activities and capital stock,which would affect the dynamic behavior of the economic cycle model,resulting in an adjustment of investment policies to promote economic stable complicated.Taking into account the impact of the expected time of the capital stock and time delay of the investment on economic activity,we used Hopf bifurcation theory to study the dynamic behavior of the business cycle model with a fixed-time delay,and then we discussed the stability of the equilibrium point and the formation conditions of the business cycle.The research discovers that the investment lag during the investing process and the forecast time of the capital stock in making the investment decision are the incentives of the business cycle;meanwhile,the anticipated balance target can be met through the government investment policy adjustment.

关 键 词：经济周期模型 固定时滞 Hopf分岔理论 稳定性 

分 类 号：F812.4[经济管理—财政学] N941.7[自然科学总论—系统科学]