疾病死亡对期望寿命变化归因的测算思路与结果  

Methods and results about the attribution of diseases death to the change of life expectancy

作　　者：王颖[1,2] 郝模[1,2] 刘鹏程[1,2] 吴红辉 屈卫东[4,2] 姜庆五[4,2] 陈家应[5,2] 李程跃[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学卫生发展战略研究中心,上海200032 [2]健康风险预警治理协同创新中心,上海200032 [3]江苏省卫生和计划生育委员会,江苏南京210009 [4]复旦大学公共卫生学院,上海200032 [5]南京医科大学卫生政策研究中心,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《中国卫生资源》2015年第2期89-92,共4页Chinese Health Resources

基　　金：教育部创新团队项目(IRT_13R11);国家社科基金重点项目(13AZD081);国家自然科学基金项目(71473046;71303058);教育部哲学社会科学发展报告资助项目(11JBGP039);教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20120071110055);江苏省卫生计生委科研基金项目;教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(12YJCZH100);复旦大学"新进青年教师科研起步项目"

摘　　要：目的 :定量测算传染病、慢性病、意外伤害、孕产妇疾病等主要疾病死亡变化对期望寿命的变化归因,明确各类疾病死亡对期望寿命的影响程度。方法 :收集华东某省1950—2010年分年龄组的人口和疾病死亡数据资料,借鉴归因分析的思路,形成疾病死亡对期望寿命变化归因的测算思路,分析1950—2010年、预测2010—2020年主要疾病死亡的变化归因。结果 :以2010年为基准年份,1950—2010年间,传染病、慢性病、意外伤害、孕产妇疾病死亡对期望寿命变化的归因分别为63.967%、1.255%、14.327%和1.371%;预测2010—2020年,上述4类疾病归因分别为1.551%、-125.049%、12.917%和0.098%,慢性病逐渐由"正归因"转变为"负归因"。结论 :传染病死亡对期望寿命的影响程度下降明显,慢性病的"负归因"程度逐渐加剧,论证了慢性病将是影响期望寿命的主要疾病。Objective ：The research aimed to quantitatively measure the attribution of disease death to the change of life expectancy,including infectious diseases,chronic diseases,accidental injuries,maternal diseases,to clarify the influence of diseases on life expectancy. Methods ：The research collected population and disease mortality data of a province in Eastern China by age group from 1950 to 2010. According to attribution analysis,the methods were formed to measure the attribution of disease death to the change of life expectancy,then the death attribution of major diseases from 1950 to 2010 was analyzed,and the trend of the attributions from 2010 to 2020 was predicted. Results ：Taking 2010 as the base year,the attributions of infectious diseases,chronic diseases,accidental injuries,and maternal diseases to the change of life expectancy were 63.967%,1.255%,14.327% and 1.371% from 1950 to 2010,respectively. The predicted attributions of diseases mentioned above were 1.551%,-125.049%,12.917% and 0.098% from 2010 to 2020,respectively. The attribution of chronic diseases has changed from ＂positive attribution＂ to ＂negative attribution＂ gradually. Conclusion ：The influence of infectious diseases to life expectancy decreased significantly,while the extent of ＂negative attribution＂ of chronic diseases increased gradually. This result demonstrated that chronic diseases would be the major diseases which affected the life expectancy.

关 键 词：疾病 期望寿命 死亡变化归因 传染病 慢性非传染性疾病 意外伤害 孕产妇疾病 

分 类 号：R195.4[医药卫生—卫生统计学] R195.3[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]