华东某省实现“十二五”人群增寿目标的可行性分析与工作策略  

Feasibility analysis and strategy to achieve the goal of promoting life expectancy in the 12th Five-Year Plan of a province in eastern China

作　　者：邱晓辉 王颖[3,2] 刘鹏程[3,2] 汪华 汤善健[4] 屈卫东[5,2] 蒲川[6,2] 郝模[3,2] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省卫生和计划生育委员会,江苏南京210009 [2]健康风险预警治理协同创新中心,上海200032 [3]复旦大学卫生发展战略研究中心,上海200032 [4]复旦大学数学科学学院,上海200443 [5]复旦大学公共卫生学院,上海200032 [6]重庆医科大学公共卫生与管理学院,重庆400016

出　　处：《中国卫生资源》2015年第2期103-105,120,共4页Chinese Health Resources

基　　金：教育部创新团队项目(IRT_13R11);国家社科基金重点项目(13AZD081);国家自然科学基金项目(71473046;71303058);教育部哲学社会科学发展报告资助项目(11JBGP039);教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20120071110055);江苏省卫生计生委科研基金项目

摘　　要：目的 :分析华东某省实现"十二五"期间"期望寿命增加1岁"的可行性,并提出相应的工作策略。方法 :收集华东某省2011—2015年人口预测资料、1950—2010年分年龄组的人口、发病和死亡数据资料,利用简略寿命表法、时间序列分析等思路和方法,分析2010—2015年间期望寿命的变化幅度,明确规划目标的实现程度;通过改变防控工作力度,预测实现规划目标的可行途径。结果 :自然趋势下,华东某省2010—2015年期望寿命将增加0.86岁,距规划目标还有0.14岁的差距;通过疾病预防控制工作整体加强0.3%、心脏病防控加强8%、脑血管病防控加强6%、肿瘤防控加强6%、意外伤害防控加强4%等途径可弥补0.14岁的差距,实现规划目标。结论 :加强慢性病和意外伤害防控是未来期望寿命再提升的主要源泉和途径。Objective ：The purpose of this article was to analyze the feasibility of achieving the goal of promoting life expectancy by 1-year in the 12 th Five-Year Plan of a province in Eastern China,and put forward some strategies. Methods ：Population estimation material from 2011-2015,population data by age group from 1950-2010,disease morbidity,and mortality data by age group from 1950-2010 of a province in Eastern China were collected. Life table and time series analysis were used to analyze the trend of life expectancy from 2010 to 2015 to figure out whether the goal could be achieved. By changing the efforts in controlling and preventing disease,researchers tried to find out the feasible ways to achieve the goals. Results ：Under the natural trend,life expectancy of the province will increase by 0.86 year from 2010 to 2015,leaving a gap of 0.14 year to the planning target. The gap can be made up through strengthening the efforts to prevent and control the overall diseases by 0.3%,or heart disease by 8%,or cerebrovascular disease by 6%,or tumors by 6%,or accidental injuries by 4%,respectively. Conclusion ：Strengthening the chronic diseases and accidental injuries control and prevention will be the main way to promote the life expectancy in the future.

关 键 词：期望寿命 增寿目标 可行性分析 策略 

分 类 号：R197.2[医药卫生—卫生事业管理] R195.3[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]