新股发行风险信息披露的意向分析  

A Tone Analysis of the IPO Risk Information Disclosure

作　　者：黄方亮[1] 齐鲁[1] 赵国庆[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学金融学院

出　　处：《山东大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2015年第2期38-48,共11页Journal of Shandong University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"新股发行风险信息披露的多维分析"(11BJY139);山东省社科规划重大委托项目暨山东金融产业优化与区域发展管理协同创新中心项目"区域金融风险生成机制与管控体系构建"(14AWTJ01-17)

摘　　要：通过应用内容分析法考察新股发行招股说明书中所披露的风险因素的隐性内容,检验其中是否存在轻描淡写或陈述不足的倾向,即对其进行意向分析,可判断风险信息披露的"言外之意"。对我国新股发行风险信息披露进行意向分析的结果表明,风险因素的内容明显具有乐观性、高估性的"误导"倾向,投资者无法依据风险信息披露所表达出的意向来预测发行人的盈利能力和后市表现。为此,新股发行信息披露文件中应强调实质风险因素的披露;要构建投资者监督机制,形成新股发行信息披露的强大社会监督群体。With the method of content analysis,we examined the latent content of the risk factors in the IPO prospectuses,tested whether there was the intention of soft-pedalling risks or understating.That is,we made a tone analysis to observe the meanings beyond the words in the risk factor sections.The result showed that the risk information tended to have misleading optimistic and overestimated tones.The investors cannot rely on the tones of the risk factors to make predictions of the profitability and the after-market performance of the issuers.Consequently,we suggested that the supervisors should emphasize the disclosure of the real risk factors,and construct of a mechanism of investors′participation in the IPO information disclosure supervision and form a strong public supervision group.

关 键 词：新股发行 风险因素 内容分析法 意向分析 

分 类 号：F832.51[经济管理—金融学]