基于来源地布局视角的中国大豆进口数量波动下降原因的实证分析  

Empirical Analysis on Causes of Decline and Fluctuation in China's Soybean Import: A Source Distribution Perspective

作　　者：林大燕[1] 朱晶[2] 张姝[3] 吴国松[4] 

机构地区：[1]南京理工大学经济管理学院 [2]南京农业大学中国粮食安全研究中心,210095 [3]农业部农业贸易促进中心 [4]淮阴师范学院经济管理学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2015年第3期108-117,共10页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"粮食安全框架下全球资本;自然资源和技术利用的战略选择研究"(11&ZD046);国家自然科学基金项目"要素密集度;技术进步与贸易开放对我国农业就业的影响研究"(71173111);江苏高校哲学社会科学研究重大项目"后危机时代全球化;市场化下江苏的粮食安全研究"(2011ZDAXM007);南京理工大学科研启动项目"来源布局;进口稳定性与国际大豆资源利用研究"的资助

摘　　要：文章从进口来源的角度对中国大豆进口数量波动进行了分解,发现美国来源的进口数量的波动最大,阿根廷次之,巴西最小,且不同来源进口波动方向往往相反,这在一定程度上降低了中国大豆进口总量的波动程度。利用2001-2013年中国大豆进口的月度数据,对进口数量来源地布局变化对中国大豆进口波动的影响进行了实证分析,结果表明,巴西、阿根廷等南美市场在中国大豆进口市场中所占份额的提高有效抑制了中国大豆进口数量的波动性。值得引起高度重视的是,简单的来源多样化并不一定能够有效降低进口波动性。如果新兴进口来源国的出口时间与传统进口来源国相同,或者出口时间与进口来源国相反但对中国的出口量远远高于传统进口来源国,则进口数量来源地布局的变动可能会加剧进口波动性。By decomposing China＇s soybean import fluctuation according to the source of import, this paper finds that the fluctuation is most significant for import from the U.S., followed by that from Argentina, and the fluctuation of the import from Brazil is the least significant. Meanwhile, the import fluctuation with the three source countries often goes in opposite directions, which works in a certain degree to redress the overall fluctuation of China＇s import of soybean. On this basis, this paper analyzes the impact of source distribution changes on China＇s soybean import fluctuation by using monthly data from year 1995 to 2012. The empirical results show that the rising share of the South American market in China＇s soybean import market has effective;y curled the fluctuation of China＇s soybean import. However, it should be highly noted that the simple diversification of import sources may not be able to smoothen trade ups and downs effectively. If the time of exports from new import sources coincides with that of traditional sources, or if the imports from new sources surpass those from traditional sources on a large scale, then the change in the import source distribution may exacerbate the import fluctuation.

关 键 词：来源布局 进口波动 大豆 

分 类 号：F752.652[经济管理—国际贸易]