Prediction Model on Chinese Annual Live Hog Supply and Its Application  

作　　者：LIANG Xiaozhen LIU Xiuli YANG Fengmei 

机构地区：[1]School of Economics and Management,Beihang University [2]Center For Forecasting Science,Key Laboratory of Management,Decision and Information Systems,Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences [3]Faculty of Science,Beijing University of Chemical Technology

出　　处：《Journal of Systems Science & Complexity》2015年第2期409-423,共15页系统科学与复杂性学报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Key Technology R&D Program under Grant No.2009BADA 9BB01-4;the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.71173210 and 61273208

摘　　要：In this paper,a prediction model on Chinese annual live hog supply was established.With cointegration test,backward and forward stochastic selection and other methods,four main factors(hog price,prices of inputs in hog production,the level of hog inventory,as well as emergency and government policy) were chosen from 16 relevant factors to establish the model and make improvement.Applied the improved model,annual live hog supply in China from 2013 to 2016 was predicted in three scenarios.The predicted results showed that if there were no major emergencies from 2013 to 2016,there would be an upward trend in Chinese live hog supply year by year.The supply of live hogs in China in 2013 would be about 707.663 million head,in 2014 would be between 715.935 and 742.969 million head,in 2015 between 734.458 and 779.413 million head,and in 2016 between 750.923 and809.450 million head.

关 键 词：Annual supply prediction China econometric model live hog. 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]