卢布危机的原因、影响与启示  

Causes, Impacts and Inspirations of the Ruble Crisis

作　　者：程亦军[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所俄罗斯经济室

出　　处：《俄罗斯学刊》2015年第2期29-35,共7页Academic Journal of Russian Studies

摘　　要：美元走强、油价下跌、西方制裁是造成卢布大幅贬值的主要原因,但根本原因还在于俄经济形势欠佳,经济发展处于停滞状态,民众对其前景缺乏信心。卢布暴跌对俄社会造成了严重的负面影响,同时也为我们提供了一系列启示:在全球经济一体化程度日益加深的今天,金融市场的动荡较之以往明显增多,发生大规模风潮的概率和频率显著增加;为了维护金融秩序、应对突发事件,适当充裕的外汇储备是必要的;利率杠杆是把双刃剑,应根据国情和市场形势慎重、科学使用;治理金融险象打组合拳的效果好于单一措施;最大限度地使用技术手段调节市场,但不排除行政干预的可能;避免在关键时刻出台敏感性强的改革措施。The depreciation of the ruble is mainly caused by a stronger US dollar, the dropping oil price and western sanctions. However, the fundamental reason lies in the bad economic situation, stagnant economic development and the public’s lack of confidence towards prospects in Russia. The plunging ruble has exerted a severe impact upon Russian society, leaving us a host of inspirations： in today’s world with deepening economic integration, there are many more fluctuations in the financial market and a noticeably higher occurrence of large-scale financial storms; a proper amount of foreign exchange reserves is necessary for protecting the financial order and coping with emergencies; the leverage of interest rates is a double-edge sword and should be used cautiously and scientifically according to the national situation and market conditions; financial perils should be handled by a series of measures which achieve better results than a single measure; the market should be regulated by a maximum use of technical measures, not excluding administrative intervention; and sensitive reform measures should be avoided in critical moments.

关 键 词：卢布汇率 外汇储备 利率杠杆 行政干预 敏感性措施 

分 类 号：F823[经济管理—财政学] F827.512.5