国际贸易网络中的靴襻渗流模型  

Bootstrap Percolation Model in International Trade Network

作　　者：胡延庆 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学系统科学学院,北京海淀区100875

出　　处：《电子科技大学学报》2015年第2期178-182,共5页Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(61174150);教育部新世纪人才资助项目(NCET-09-0228);教育部博士点基金项目--博导类(20110003110027);国家973计划资助(2011CB952001)

摘　　要：根据国际贸易网络的特点，提出基于该网络的靴襻渗流基本模型，模拟危机传播的级联过程。进而得到两个一般模型：比例模型和GDP模型。接着探究危机具体传播过程，根据影响方式不同，将受影响的国家进行分类。模拟结果表明，大部分源国家的危机传播范围随阈值Ω呈现出相变现象，比较各源国家相变现象的Ω值大小可得到相应的危机影响力。针对给定参数Ω，探讨模型的具体传播过程和影响程度。结果反映出模型的合理性，为危机传播预测和过程探讨提供参考。Based on the features of international trade network, this paper proposes a basic model of bootstrap percolation to simulate cascading process of crisis propagation. Two general models, proportion model and GDP model, are derived from the basic model. According to different transmission modes, the affected countries are classified into four types and specific propagation processes are explored. Simulation results show that the vast majority of affected countries occur phase transition phenomenon with the thresholdΩ. Comparing the thresholdΩin phase transition point of different sources countries, we can obtain their relative crisis consequences. For a given parameterΩ, we discuss the specific transmission and their scope. Results reflect the rationality of this model.

关 键 词：靴襻渗流 复杂网络 计算机模拟 危机传播 国际贸易 

分 类 号：TP311.1[自动化与计算机技术—计算机软件与理论] N949[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]