中国饲料原料解决路径评估  

The Evaluation of Solutions to China's Feed Ingredients

作　　者：周海文[1] 周海川[2] 

机构地区：[1]石河子大学经济与管理学院 [2]中国林业科学研究院林业科技信息研究所

出　　处：《经济与管理研究》2015年第4期45-51,共7页Research on Economics and Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"开放经济条件下完善我国农产品价格形成机制和调控机制研究--基于产业链联动优化的视角"(09&ZD044)

摘　　要：本文基于GTAP模型分析了四大饲料原料解决途径对饲料产业的影响。扩大饲料作物和饲草的种植面积、压缩粮食和经济作物的面积会增加国内消费数量、减少国内出口数量和饲料粮的数量,引起国内消费价格、出口价格较大的变化,尽管最终会增加中国贸易盈余,但对生产者收益影响较大。通过海外农业开发,购买或租赁国外土地生产饲料粮,然后运回中国对国内产品消费数量以及消费、出口、进口价格的影响较小,有利于提高畜产品加工者的收益。直接进口动物性蛋白产品除了对国内出口数量和肉类进口数量影响较大外,其余影响较小。进口饲料粮对国内数量、价格、贸易以及生产者的影响最小。Based on the GTAP model,this paper analyzes the impacts of the solutions of feed ingredients to the feed industry.The expansion of fodder crops and forage acreage and the compression of the area of food and cash crops can increase the number of domestic consumption and export volume,reduce the number of domestic feed grain,and cause major changes on the domestic consumer prices and export prices.Although it increases China＇s trade surplus,there is a greater impact on producer returns.The way of agricultural development overseas and the purchase or rent of foreign lands to grow feed grains which then transport back to China,have a small impact on the volume of products for domestic consumption,export prices and import prices,which can improve the livestock processors＇ earnings.The direct import of animal protein products slightly influences all aspects except the number of import and the volume of meat export.The import of feed grains has the minimal impact on the domestic quantities,prices,trades and producers.

关 键 词：饲料原料 海外农业开发 贸易创造效应 GTAP 

分 类 号：F752.61[经济管理—国际贸易] F752.62[经济管理—产业经济]