基于多Agent的我国城镇化水平动态模拟  

Dynamic Simulation of China's Urbanization Level Based on Multi-agent

作　　者：李新运[1] 王圆圆[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学管理科学与工程学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2015年第4期90-93,共4页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(14BJY210);教育部人文社会科学基金项目(14YJC790114);国家统计局科研项目(2013LY068)

摘　　要：我国正处在城镇化快速发展时期,其未来的状态变化受到多个因素的交叉影响。文章从系统论观点出发,分析了城镇化过程的影响因素,建立了城镇化发展的多Agent模拟模型,模拟了智能体行为选择与状态演化的机理,预测了2014-2020年我国城镇化水平的变化趋势。模拟结果显示:劳动力迁移是影响城镇化水平的直接因素;就业机会的增多、户籍改革政策的实施均为农村人口转变提供了生存保障,是影响城镇化水平的关键因素;到2020年,我国城镇化水平可达63.8%左右。China is undergoing a rapid period of urbanization, the changes of its future state are influenced by multiple factors. This paper, from the perspective of system theory, makes an analysis on the internal and external factors of urbanization process, builds a computer simulation model by the multi-agent model of urbanization development in Anylogic platform, and forecasts the change trend of China’s urbanization level from 2014 to 2020. The simulation results show that：Labor migration is the direct factor affecting the level of urbanization. Both the increase of employment opportunities and the implementation of household registration reform policy, which are the key factors affecting the level of urbanization, provide living guarantees for the rural people migration. And China’s urbanization level will reach about 63.8%by 2020.

关 键 词：城镇化 动态模拟 

分 类 号：F124.1[经济管理—世界经济]