用乘数法估计江苏省3市吸毒人群规模  

Estimating population size of drug users in 3 cities of Jiangsu Province by multiplier method

作　　者：刘晓燕[1] 徐金水[1] 刘晓霞[2] 缪小兰[3] 乙永林[4] 还锡萍[1] 羊海涛[1] 陈国红[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省疾病预防控制中心,南京210009 [2]江苏省镇江市疾病预防控制中心,镇江212003 [3]江苏省无锡市疾病预防控制中心,无锡214002 [4]江苏省连云港市疾病预防控制中心,连云港222003

出　　处：《江苏预防医学》2015年第2期41-42,共2页Jiangsu Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：中国全球基金艾滋病项目(CHN-304-G03-H);"十二五"国家科技重大专项(2011ZX10004-902)

摘　　要：目的估计吸毒人群规模,为制定防治策略提供依据。方法采用乘数法对江苏省3市吸毒人群进行估计,并根据注射吸毒比例计算注射吸毒人群规模。结果苏南某市吸毒人群32 914人,注射吸毒人群4 819人;苏中某市吸毒人群3 081人,注射吸毒人群719人;苏北某市吸毒人群5 461人,注射吸毒人群707人。结论利用已有数据和资料,用乘数法估计吸毒人群规模相对简单、易操作。Objective To estimate the population size of drug users（DUs）;to provide basis for making control and prevention strategies.Methods Multiplier method was used to estimate the population sizes of DUs in 3 cities of Jiangsu Province,the size of intravenous injection drug user（IDU）population was calculated based on the proportion of IDUs.Results For 3 cities from south,middle and north of Jiangsu Province,population sizes of DUs were 32 914,3 081 and 5 461,respectively;while population sizes of IDUs were 4 819,719 and 707,respectively.Conclusions Estimating population size of DUs by multiplier method on the basis of existing data and information is relatively easy to operate.

关 键 词：乘数法 吸毒人群 估计 规模 

分 类 号：R512.91[医药卫生—内科学]