计及风速相关性的电网静态安全风险评估  

Static security risk assessment of power system considering wind speed correlation

作　　者：张里[1] 刘俊勇[1] 刘友波[1] 闫占新[1] 许立雄[1] 吴杨[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学电气信息学院,四川成都610065

出　　处：《电力自动化设备》2015年第4期84-89,共6页Electric Power Automation Equipment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50977059);国家电网公司科技项目~~

摘　　要：电网内的多个风电场由于地理位置比较接近,具有较强的风速相关性,会影响概率潮流的结果。采用Nataf变换建立多个风电场间的风速相关性样本空间,进而得到具有相关性的风电场出力。以风速相关性下的系统当前运行状态为基础,构成预想事故集,将全概率理论与排序集采样概率潮流相结合,进行风速相关性下的电网静态安全风险随机潮流计算,并对电网安全风险进行评估。在风电接入改进IEEE 30节点系统中使用RSMCS方法进行仿真,结果表明所提方法可准确、快速地评估风速相关性下系统当前运行状态的静态安全风险。Since multiple wind farms in a power grid are relatively close to each other,their wind speeds have obvious correlation,which has impact on the results of probabilistic load flow. Nataf transform is applied to build the sample space of wind speed correlation among multiple wind farms and the output power of wind farm with correlation is obtained. The anticipated accident set is constructed based on the present operating state of power system with wind speed correlation and the total probability theory is combined with the probabilistic load flow based on the ranked-set sampling to calculate the stochastic load flow of power system with wind speed correlation and assess its security risk. The results of RSMCS（Ranked Set Monte Carlo Simulation） for the improved IEEE 30-bus system with wind power show that,the proposed method can correctly and quickly assess the static security risk of present operating state of power system with wind speed correlation.

关 键 词：风电 概率潮流 Nataf变换 排序集采样 风速相关性 风险评估 静态安全 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]