海外石油钻探项目风险预警识别模型  

RISK IDENTIFYING MODEL OF THE OVERSEAS OIL EXPLORATORY DRILLING PROJECTS

作　　者：张洪大[1] 帅传敏[1] 程欣[1] 郭晴[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《大庆石油地质与开发》2015年第2期111-116,共6页Petroleum Geology & Oilfield Development in Daqing

基　　金："大庆油田项目化管理模式与发展策略研究"(2012086008)课题;"中国地质大学(武汉)研究生培养模式与教学改革项目"(CUGYCXK1004)

摘　　要：准确及时地识别风险对海外石油钻探项目的风险预警管理具有重要的现实意义。基于150份有效调查问卷的样本数据,采用风险管理理论与判别分析法,构建了海外石油钻探项目风险识别模型,并对大庆油田海外石油钻探项目的风险级别进行了识别和分析。研究结果显示:构建的风险评价指标体系能够反映海外石油钻探项目的风险状况;风险预警识别模型具有一定的理论创新性和实践应用价值,且判断准确率高;风险预警结果与实际相符合,大庆相关团队应重点防范和预警"中警"项目,并制定"重警"项目风险应对预案。Identifying the risks accurately and timely is of great practical significance for the risk early-warning management of overseas oil exploratory drilling projects. Based on the sample data of 150 valid questionnaires, by means of the risk managing theories and discriminating-analyzing methods, the risk identifying models for the over- seas projects are established, and moreover the identification and analyses of the risk level for Daqing overseas oil exploratory drilling projects are engaged. The results show that the established risk evaluation index system can refleet the risk status of the overseas oil drilling projects; the risk precaution identifying model has a certain theoretical innovation and practical application value, and moreover the identification accuracy is pretty high; the risk i- dentified results are consistent with the reality. Daqing related management teams should focus on the prevention and early warning of the projects at medium risk level, and furthermore formulate the risk response plan for the projects with serious risk.

关 键 词：海外石油钻探项目 风险预警 风险识别 判别分析法 

分 类 号：TE281[石油与天然气工程—油气井工程]