原油管网改造投入产出分析建模方法  

Input/output analysis modeling of crude oil pipeline network reconstruction

作　　者：曾力波[1] 裴东波[2] 张明 

机构地区：[1]中国石油管道科技研究中心油气管道输送安全国家工程实验室,河北廊坊065000 [2]中国石油管道公司,河北廊坊065000 [3]中油管道投产运行公司,河北廊坊065000

出　　处：《油气储运》2015年第3期297-302,共6页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

摘　　要：对油气管道(网)改造工程进行评价,是工程项目评价的难点之一。将输油管网改造产生的效益划分为安全效益和经济效益,建立以"管道失效"为顶事件的长输管道失效事故树,通过求解最小割集、基本事件的概率重要度和临界重要度进行多层次模糊综合评价以量化安全效益;将管网改造的经济效益划分为减损产出和增值产出,减损产出考虑人员损失减少、社会损失减少、生态环境损失减少、设备损失减少、维检修等因素,增值产出考虑管网延寿产生的输量增加值。再结合基于风险的评价方法,以及各项国际、国内、行业标准,计算经济效益。建立了原油管网改造投入产出计算模型,结合具体改造工程数据,可对原油管网改造的投入产出进行客观评价。Oil and gas pipeline network reconstruction is one of the difficulties in engineering project evaluation. This paper proposes the input/output analysis model for such construction by dividing the benefits thereof into security benefits and economic benefits and establishing the long-term pipeline failure tree which takes the ＂pipeline failure＂ as top event. Firstly, the security benefit is quantified by multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation through solving the probability importance and critical importance of basic event and minimal cut sets. Secondly, the economic benefits are divided into output by loss reduction（which considers reduction of personnel losses, social loss, ecological and environmental damage, equipment loss, maintenance inspection and others） and output by value addition（which considers the increased throughput due to longer life of the pipe network）. Then, with the risk-based evaluation methods, and according to the international, national and industry standards, the economic benefits are calculated. Finally, with the data of specific reconstruction project, the model is used to objectively evaluate the input/output of crude oil pipeline network reconstruction.

关 键 词：管网改造 投入产出 最小割集 概率重要度 临界重要度 安全效益 安全经济学 

分 类 号：TE832[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]