收入分布变迁与消费结构转变——基于门限模型的非线性计量分析  

Income Distribution Change and Consumption Structural Transformation:Based on the Analysis of Nonlinear Threshold Model

作　　者：孙巍[1,2] 杨程博[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,吉林长春130012 [2]吉林大学商学院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2015年第2期307-315,共9页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(10JJD790032);吉林省科技厅软科学项目(20110616);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地自设项目(JLUCQE14010)

摘　　要：当前我国消费存在着明显的结构性转变特征,且居民收入分布上不同收入层次人群的消费偏好具有显著的差异。由此选取CHIP数据并运用门限回归模型,根据城镇居民收入与消费(关系)的非线性特征划分出不同的收入组群,来对居民消费进行更为细致的分析。结果表明,城镇居民消费存在显著的收入组群差异,同时各类消费市场的发展阶段也存在区别,收入分布变迁正促使城镇居民消费结构由生存型消费向更高一级的享受发展型消费转变。可见当前我国经济中,居民收入水平对消费的影响与消费对经济增长的贡献,都已不再具有明显的整体效应。因此,拉动消费以促进经济增长就需要关注重点的收入组群以及具有显著成长性的消费市场。The consumption of current our country exists obvious structural transformation characteristics,And the consumer preferences of different income level on income distribution also exists significant differences.This paper selects CHIP data and use threshold regression model,according to the nonlinear characteristics of income and consumption divided into different income groups,to carry out a more detailed analysis.The results show that urban residents’ consumption exist significant differences between income groups,meanwhile all kinds of consumer market development stage is not the same.Income distribution change is promoting the consumption structural transformation from the living type consumption to enjoying/development type consumption.Thus it can be seen that,the impact of income on consumption and the contribution of consumption to economic growth,are no longer has the significant overall effect.Therefore,stimulating consumption to promote economic growth need to focus the main income groups and keep a watchful eye on the consumer market with the remarkable growth.

关 键 词：收入分布变迁 消费结构 门限回归 家庭调查数据 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]