绿色核算视角下的最终消费锁定及其破解  

Analysis of the Double-lock Effect on China Final Consumption

作　　者：熊娜[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国旅游研究院,北京100005 [2]中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所,北京100005

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2015年第2期327-339,共13页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金资助项目(编号:2013M530803;2014T70164);国家科技支撑计划(编号:2011BAJ07B07)资助

摘　　要：本文将中国经济高增长与消费低增长现象概括为最终消费的锁定,借助广义资本核算方法及教育预防性储蓄视角,提炼最终消费锁定现象的两项基本假说,即核算锁定论和基本需求主导论。在改进后的长期均衡计量模型指导下,以协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数及方差分解法对中国1970至2010年相关数据进行分析验证并给出锁定原因及解锁途径:刺激消费总量,提升消费结构,有赖于提高绿色收入占比,监控消费支出泡沫化走势。This research abstracts two hypothesizes consisting of double-lock as the core character of China’s special phenomenon that consumption stagnation exists for years while economy growth rapidly.Those hypothesis are so called illusion of statistic,which means independence of China final consumption to its national income will disappeared when the income is adjusted by saving rates from the conventional gross one to the genuine one,and basic demand oriented consumption pattern,which means the lower one in the Maslow’s hierarchy of needs accounts the major part of final consumption expenditure and enjoys priority to be satisfied before the higher one as human capital investment.Both hypothesizes are valid according to the results of Granger causality test,as well as the analysis of impulse response function and variance decomposition technique.Sufficient results have been observed with the method we depicted above,which suggests final consumption promoted both in amount and structure by the increase of ratio of green economy verse the whole national economy,as well as crushing foam from consumption expenditure.

关 键 词：最终消费锁定 广义资本 教育预防性储蓄需求 真实储蓄 结构向量自回归模型 

分 类 号：F061.3[经济管理—政治经济学] F014.4