基于头脑风暴原则的主观证据融合决策方法  

DecisionMaking Method for Integrating Subjective Evidences Based on Brain Storming Principles

作　　者：杜元伟[1] 段万春[1] 黄庆华[1] 杨娜[1] 

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学管理与经济学院,云南昆明650093

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2015年第3期130-140,共11页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71261011;71462022);云南省应用基础研究计划项目(2013FB030;2011FZ021);云南省教育厅重点项目(2012Z103);云南省哲学社会科学创新团队建设项目资助(2014cx05)

摘　　要：为了解决证据源是主观的或者客观证据源因无法获取有效信息而不得不寻求主观经验、知识、直觉帮助的决策问题,采用基于互补判断的相对估计方式构建了能够提取决策专家主观推断信息的柔性知识矩阵,给出了由柔性知识矩阵向BPA函数转化的主观证据提取模型,在此基础上将头脑风暴方法中的延迟评判、独立思考、以量求质、结合改善四项原则引入到主观证据的提取过程之中,构建了可以从识别框架中辨识出可能为最优方案的融合决策方法,最后分别应用数值对比分析和案例模拟分析验证了提出方法的科学有效性和应用可行性。The existing approaches aren＇t able to solve the decision problems that evidence sourses are subjective or objective evidence sourses that can＇t obtain efficient information,and thus we have to look for help from subjecitve knowledge,experience and intuition.In order to solve above problems,the flexible knowledge matrice given by relative estimation modes with complementary judgments are established to derive subjective inference information from decision experts,and a subjective evidence deriving model is constructed to obtain Basic Probability Assignment（BPA）functions from flexible knowledge matrice.After that,four priciples in Brain Storming,i.e.,delayed evaluation,independently thinking,quality ensured by quanity,as well as combined to improvment,are introduced to the procedure of deriving subjective evidences,and a integrating and decision making method is proposed to recognize the most possible alternative in the frame of discernment.A numerical comparison analysis and a case simulation analysis are respectively presented to demonstrate the proposed method to be scientific,efficient,and feasible finally.

关 键 词：主观证据 证据理论 头脑风暴 决策方法 群体决策 

分 类 号：C93[经济管理—管理学]