航空装备MTBF动态评估与预测模型  

Dynamic Assessment and Prediction Model of MTBF of Aviation Equipment

作　　者：袁辉[1] 王夷[1] 郑震山[1] 吴雄[1] 

机构地区：[1]海军装备研究院,上海200436

出　　处：《机械设计与制造》2015年第4期31-34,共4页Machinery Design & Manufacture

摘　　要：基于航空装备可靠性增长的内在规律,将航空装备的故障分为新生故障和复发故障两类,构建了新生故障概率密度函数和故障衰减函数,导出了复发故障概率密度函数,最终建立了航空装备平均故障间隔时间(MTBF)动态评估与预测模型,并给出了模型参数确定基本算法、截尾数据处理方法和拟合优度验证方法。工程实例分析表明,模型能够客观地反映航空装备可靠性增长趋势,MTBF评估结果合理,且在一定的时间跨度内MTBF预测精度较高,误差小于10%。Based on inherent laws of reliability growth of aviation equipment, failures of aviation equipment were classified into two categories： nascent failures and old failures. Two functions, probability density function of nascent failures and attenuation function of failures, were developed firstly. Then, a probability density function of old failures was deduced. At last, a dynamic assessment and prediction model of mean time between failures of aviation equipment was constructed. At the same time, the basic algorithm of determining the model parameters, the method of processing censored data and the discriminant formula of fitting effect were presented. In order to verify the dynamic assessment and prediction model, it was used to analyze an engineering case. The prediction results indicate that： the reliability growth trend of aviation equipment can be described objectively by the model; the predictions of the assessment of MTBF（mean time between failures）ave acceptable; the predictions errors in seemly time spans are less than 10%.

关 键 词：航空装备 可靠性 平均故障间隔时间 评估模型 预测模型 

分 类 号：TH16[机械工程—机械制造及自动化] V215.1[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航推进理论与工程]