丙肝疫情3种不同疾病预测预警方法比较  

Prediction and early warning for HCV:comparison of three methods

作　　者：姜超[1] 刘文东[2] 胡建利[2] 朱叶飞[2] 鲍昌俊[2] 汤奋扬[2] 彭志行[1] 陈峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京医科大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系,江苏南京211166 [2]江苏省疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《中国公共卫生》2015年第4期390-393,共4页Chinese Journal of Public Health

基　　金：江苏省自然科学基金(BK2010079);国家科技重大专项(2011ZX10004-902);江苏省优势学科建设项目;江苏省科教兴卫工程(ZX201109)

摘　　要：目的分析Markov链模型、Holt-Winters指数平滑模型、控制图预警模型3种预测预警方法对江苏省丙型肝炎(丙肝)疫情的预测效果,为丙肝的预防控制提供科学依据。方法收集江苏省传染病疫情管理系统1997—2009年法定报告传染病疫情中丙肝的发病资料,分别建立Markov链模型、Holt-Winters指数平滑模型以及控制图预警模型,比较3种方法对丙肝预测的效果。结果 Markov链模型预测江苏省2009年9—12月丙肝的发病数均>120例,与实际发病例数的164、125、145、138例相符;Holt-Winters季节迭加模型(α=0.46,β=0.001,γ=0.001)预测效果较好,RMSE和MAPE分别为12.629 85和19.18%;控制图5年预警模型可以用于丙肝疫情的预警,将P70作为预警界值,灵敏度、特异度均>90%。结论 Markov链模型、Holt-Winters指数平滑模型是丙肝预测的良好方法,控制图预警模型可用于丙肝疫情的预警。Objective To apply and compare different models in prediction of the trend of hepatitis C virus（HCV）epidemic in Jiangsu province and to provide bases for the control of HCV epidemic. Methods The data on infectious diseases report in Jiangsu province form 1997 to 2009 were collected. Markov chain model and Hole-Winters exponential smoothing forecasting model were used to predict epidemics and control chart was used to detect outbreaks or epidemics of HCV infection. Results Markov chain model predicted that the incidence of HCV from September to December in2009 would be more than 120 cases and the prediction was consistent with the case number reported. Hole-Winters-additive model（α = 0. 46,β = 0. 001,γ = 0. 001） had good performance in predicting HCV epidemic,with the root mean square error（RM SE） and mean absolute percentage error（M APE） of 12. 6 and 19. 1%,respectively. A five-year control chart was chosen as an essential method in early warning system. The early warning threshold for HCV epidemic was 70 percentile and at the threshold level,the sensitivity and specificity for HCV epidemic prediction were over 90%. Conclusion Markov chain model and Hole-Winters exponential smoothing forecasting model are good method for prediction of HCV epidemic and control chart can be used in the early warning.

关 键 词：预测 丙型肝炎(丙肝) MARKOV链模型 Holt-Winters指数平滑模型 控制预警模型 

分 类 号：R512.63[医药卫生—内科学]