政府规划约束下的城市空间增长多智能体模拟模型  

Multi-agent-based Simulation Model of Urban Spatial Expansion under Government Planning

作　　者：谢中凯[1] 李飞雪[1] 李满春[1] 陈振杰[1] 周琛[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学江苏省地理信息技术重点实验室,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2015年第2期60-64,69,F0003,共7页Geography and Geo-Information Science

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2012BAH28B04);国家自然科学基金项目(40901184)

摘　　要：构建政府规划约束下的包含多种类型智能体和环境因素的城市空间增长多智能体模拟模型,通过居民、开发商和政府三类智能体之间以及智能体与环境之间的相互作用模拟了城市空间增长情况。模型将城市建设用地规划区纳入政府的土地利用政策,探讨了政府规划因素对城市建设用地增长的影响,并根据土地集约利用的原则对模拟结果进行了优化。在Repast和ArcGIS的实验环境下,以南京市中心城区(长江以南)为研究区设置了四组土地利用情景,模拟了2001-2007年研究区的城市建设用地增长情况,对比不同情景下模型的模拟精度,说明正确合理的政府规划引导对城市空间增长的重要作用以及对模拟结果进行优化的必要性。该模型有助于揭示城市空间增长机制,为政府宏观调控政策和规划制定提供参考。This paper builds a multi-agent-based simulation model of urban spatial expansion under government planning which contains a variety of agent types and environmental factors.The model simulates the urban spatial expansion through the interactions among three agent types（residents,developers and government）and the interactions between agents and environment.The urban construction land planning areas are introduced into the government′s land use policy,the government planning on the expansion of urban construction land is discussed and the simulation results are optimized in accordance with the principle of intensive use of land.Under the experimental conditions of Repast and ArcGIS,the Nanjing Downtown（south of the Yangtze River）was chosen as the study area.According to different policy settings,four land use scenarios were set to simulate the expansion of urban construction land from 2001 to 2007in the study area.Compared the model′s simulation accuracy under different scenarios,it′s shown that a correct and reasonable government planning guidance plays an important role in urban space expansion and the optimization of the simulation results is necessary.The model can help to reveal the urban expansion mechanism and provides a reference for the government to draw up macro-control policy and development planning.

关 键 词：多智能模型 空间增长 政府政策 模拟 优化 

分 类 号：F293.2[经济管理—国民经济]