基于动态因子分析的区域城市化质量时空分析——以陕西省关中城市群为例  

Space-Time Analysis of Regional Urbanization Quality Based on Dynamic Factor Analysis:A Case Study of Guanzhong Urban Agglomeration in Shaanxi Province

作　　者：赵璟[1] 刘佳[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学经济与管理学院,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2015年第2期81-86,共6页Geography and Geo-Information Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"区域经济政策对城市群平衡增长的促进作用:微观机理与仿真实现"(71203178);陕西省科学技术研究发展计划项目"区域经济政策对城市群平衡增长的促进作用研究"(2013KJXX-37);陕西省普通高校哲学社会科学特色学科建设项目"社会经济系统管理与政策研究"(5X1203);陕西(高校)哲学社会科学重点研究基地-西安理工大学城市经济与管理研究中心项目(107-0051102);陕西省教育厅专项科研计划项目"分类区域经济政策与陕西省城市平衡增长:促进机制;影响效应与政策创新"(14JK1492)

摘　　要：中国城市化发展逐步从注重城市规模的扩张转向城市化质量的提升。该文从资源集约化、城市现代化、城乡统筹化3个维度构建区域城市化质量综合评价指标体系,应用动态因子分析方法计算跨期可比的区域城市化质量,以此为基础从时间维度、空间维度和时-空双维度三方面构建了时空分析模型。针对城市化质量评价值可能为负的特点,改进了人口加权变异系数和极化指数的计算公式。以陕西省关中城市群为例进行模型应用,对2000-2011年关中城市群城市化质量整体时变和空间分异进行解析与探讨。At present,China is entering a new era of rapid urbanization.With the continuous improvement of the level of urbanization,its development focus is gradually changing from the expansion of the city size to the quality of urbanization.According to the new connotation and trends of urbanization,this paper establishes an urbanization quality comprehensive evaluation index system in a regional perspective in terms of resource intensiveness,urban modernization and urban-rural integration,and estimates the weights of indexes by applying dynamic factor analysis.Aiming at the characteristic of negative evaluation,it builds up urbanization quality space-time analysis model from the two aspects of time-varying feather and spatial distribution evolution.This paper applied the model to analyze the spatial-temporal feature of urbanization quality from 2000 to 2011by taking Guanzhong urban agglomeration as an example.The results show that there has been a general uptrend in urbanization quality,and the overall trend of nationwide regional inequality and polarization is basically the same in recent years,which decrease rapidly after its growth trend is rapid first.Polarization speed is faster than inequality speed in the expansion period but polarization speed is slower than the other in the contraction period.

关 键 词：城市化质量 动态因子分析 时空分析模型 跨期评价 

分 类 号：F019.6[经济管理—政治经济学] F290