中国居民农产品消费变化的因素分解：基于产出角度  

Factors Decomposition of Agricultural Product Consumption in China:An Output Approach

作　　者：袁小慧[1,2] 范金[2] 王凯[1] 严斌剑[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学经济管理学院 [2]江苏省行政学院经济社会发展研究所

出　　处：《中国农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2015年第2期73-82,共10页Journal of China Agricultural University;Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目《构建扩大消费长效机制的着力点研究》(12CJY072);国家自然科学基金项目《工业增加值率的转型动态研究与政策模拟:以长三角地区制造业为例》(71373106)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：在经历了1997年的亚洲金融危机和2002年的入世之后,中国农产品产出使用形式越来越多样化,相应地,以最终产品形式用于满足居民消费需求部分也发生很大变化。借鉴De Boer思想,采用Montgomery分解与投入产出相结合的方法,将影响中国居民农产品消费变化的因素分解为规模效应、技术效应、结构效应和总量效应。结果表明:第一,从总体影响作用看,技术效应对农产品消费结构升级作用明显;第二,从影响程度看,相对于加工农产品,初级农产品消费受各因素的影响程度更大;第三,从中长期看,中期消费规模效应对农产品消费影响较大,但长期内最终消费需求的总量效应作用更强;第四,对于加工农产品而言,中期水产品加工业消费受影响显著,而长期酒精及饮料酒制造业、其他饮料制造业消费受影响较为明显。Chinese agricultural products have become more diversified, whereas consumer＇s behavior on food also has great changes after 1997, when the Asian financial crisis happened, and these changes were strengthened after 2002, the year China entering into the WTO. Drawing method from De Boer, this paper combines Montgomery decomposition with Input- Output technique, and decomposes determinants of Chinese residential consumption on agricultural products into scale effect, technological effect, structure effect and aggregate effect. The paper finds that： Firstly, in general, technological effect had a remarkable role in upgrading of consumption structure of agricultural products; Secondly, primary agricultural products are more susceptible than processed agricultural products; Thirdly, globalization caused consumption scale effect to have larger impact on consumption of agricultural products in the mid-term, whereas aggregate effect of final consumption demand had a stronger role in the long term; Fourthly, among processed agricultural products, consumption on products of aquatic products processing industry were more susceptible in the mid-term, while the alcoholic drinks and wine manufacturing sectors and other beverage manufacturing sectors were more susceptible in the long term.

关 键 词：农产品消费 投入产出表 Montgomery分解 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]