港口石油储备基地溢油风险概率计算  

Calculating the probability of oil spill at port oil reserve base

作　　者：黄燕品[1] 李颖[1] 周新[1] 张至达 刘丙新[1] 刘瑀[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航海学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《海洋环境科学》2015年第2期313-316,共4页Marine Environmental Science

基　　金：国家海洋公益项目(2012418012);国家科技支撑项目(港区储罐安全风险防控与应急技术);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金

摘　　要：随着大连新港油罐区重大溢油事故的发生,港口溢油作为近年来备受关注的海洋灾害对港口环境及海洋生态环境造成的损害有目共睹,计算溢油风险概率是溢油事故风险评价和确定溢油事故等级的前提。本文介绍了直接计算法和故障树分析法两种溢油风险概率计算方法,通过对油罐区溢油事故资料的分析,建立事故诱因和它们之间的逻辑关系,结合故障树理论,建立故障树模型。以大连新港为例,根据底事件发生概率计算出顶事件的概率,通过分析计算油罐区每年发生溢油事故的风险概率为0.044,大约23a发生一次。With the occurrence of oil spill accidents in Dalian New Port,port oil spills have been paid more attention as major marine disaster. The damages of port oil spills on port environment and marine eco- environments were obvious in recent years. Calculating oil spill risk probability is the premise of oil spill risk assessment and evaluating the spilled oil levels. This paper introduces two methods of calculating oil spill risk probability,according to analyze the information of tank farm oil spill accident,to know all the causes of accident and its logical relations,combine fault tree theory to establish fault tree model. For instance,Dalian new port,based on the probability of bottom event to calculate the probability of top event,through the analysis and calculation,the probability of tank farm oil spill accident is 0.044 every year,about 23 years happened a time.

关 键 词：油罐区 故障树 风险概率 

分 类 号：X55[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X820.4