基于SWAT模型的西江流域径流模拟研究  

Research on Hydrological Simulation in Xijiang Basin Based on SWAT Model

作　　者：袁媛[1,2] 雷晓辉[2] 蒋云钟[1,2] 宋万祯[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]东华大学,上海201620 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100044 [3]天津大学,天津300072

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2015年第3期14-17,21,共5页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：贵州省重大科技项目"黔中岩溶山区水资源可持续利用关键技术研究"(黔科合重大专项专题[2012]6013-6号);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201301001;20131102);国家科技支撑计划(2013BAB05B05);国家科技支撑计划(2013BAB05B05);环保部公益基金项目(2013467042);国家重点基础研究发展计划项目("973"项目计划)(2013CB036406)

摘　　要：采用SWAT（Soil and Water Assessment Tool）模型,在整个珠江流域构建分布式水文模型,对西江流域1951~2008年的月径流过程进行模拟。选取西江流域的迁江、柳州、武宣3个水文站的径流数据,利用SWAT模型自带的敏感性分析模块和自动率定模块,采用LH-OAT敏感性分析方法和SCE-UA算法分别对选取的各参数进行敏感性分析和参数率定,并对率定模型进行验证。敏感性分析结果表明,不同的参数对流域月径流过程表现出不同程度的敏感度,其中CN2、ESCO、SOL_AWC、CH_K2和ALPHA_BF的敏感度较高,是较敏感因子。从率定和验证结果来看,3个水文站的径流模拟效果均较好,Nash-Suttcliffe效率系数ENS均在0.75以上,其中柳州站和武宣站率定期和验证期的ENS在0.8以上。SWAT分布式水文模型在西江流域月径流模拟中的应用效果良好。This paper constructs a distributed hydrological model SWAT in Zhujiang Basin to simulate the process of monthly runoff from 1951 to 2008in Xijiang Basin,and SWAT model with sensitivity analysis module and automatic rate module is used to analyze sensitivity,calibrate parameter and validate model for each parameter with the choice of LH-OAT sensitivity analysis method and SCE-UA method based on the monthly runoff data of three hydrological stations,Qianjiang,Liuzhou and Wuxuan in Xijiang Basin.As it turned out,different parameters have different degrees of sensitivity for monthly runoff.CN2,ESCO,SOL_AWC,CH_K2,ALPHA_BF are most significant,they are more sensitive factors.Other parameters have no effect or little effect.According to the calibrated and verificated results,the simulation effect of three hydrological stations is good,ENSis above 0.75,the ENSof Liuzhou station and Wuxuan Station is both above 0.8in calibration and validation period,the application effect of distributed hydrological model SWAT for monthly runoff simulation in Xijiang Basin is better.

关 键 词：SWAT模型 敏感性分析 模型率定 西江流域 

分 类 号：P334.92[天文地球—水文科学]